{"wallet":"0x84cfffc3f16dcc353094de30d4a45226eccd2f63","displayName":"mooseborzoi","pseudonym":"Agitated-Bricklaying","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":312029.93,"totalPnl":-897199.92,"realizedPnl":36563.93,"unrealizedPnl":-933763.85,"winRate":0.15,"openPositions":278,"resolvedBets":40,"uniqueMarkets":100},"calibration":6,"profitability":0,"consistency":61,"discipline":95,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":39,"trustScore":34,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":40,"description":"F/34 [CI95: F→D, 29-38] (40 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":29,"scoreHigh":38,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.028472727272727275,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.2727272727272727,"expectedRate":0.028472727272727275,"error":0.24425454545454545},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15200000000000002,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.15200000000000002,"error":0.848},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26821637010580557,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26821637010580557,"error":0.26821637010580557},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34941038025123783,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34941038025123783,"error":0.34941038025123783},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46153635047254077,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.1,"expectedRate":0.46153635047254077,"error":0.36153635047254074},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.536372038355914,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.536372038355914,"error":0.536372038355914},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6802,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6802,"error":0.6802},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7389,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.7389,"error":0.2611},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8399327841080211,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8399327841080211,"error":0.8399327841080211},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9803999999999999,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9803999999999999,"error":0.9803999999999999}],"brierScore":0.2972,"calibrationError":0.4221,"resolvedBets":40,"overconfidenceBias":0.2323,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":17.4,"luck":78.4,"edge":-124.51},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2226,"resolution":0.0505,"uncertainty":0.1275},"brierSkillScore":-1.3306,"logLoss":0.9501,"logLossSkill":-1.2477,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x84cfffc3f16dcc353094de30d4a45226eccd2f63","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777052376,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-24","walletAgeDays":2,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":868409.1,"totalUsdcOut":763674.52,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 2 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $1,632,084","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T08:19:24.644Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1001934.5,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x84cfffc3f16dcc353094de30d4a45226eccd2f63","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":26769.15,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":22,"largestWithdrawal":10993.87,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-24","fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T08:23:40.133Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 2 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $26,769 in / $0 out across 22 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-24.","3100 total trades across 100 markets.","40 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 42.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 17/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 78/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -133.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2226 RES=0.0505 UNC=0.1275.","Log loss: 0.9501 (skill: -124.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.232","High luck component: 78/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -133.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$897200 total PnL","Low win rate: 15%","On-chain: wallet only 2 days old on Polygon","PnL divergence: $1001934 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 2 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong resolution/discrimination: forecasts meaningfully diverge from base rate","Well-diversified: 100 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $26,769 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 22 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-27T08:23:41.138Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 2 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":2}}