{"wallet":"0x84d0a541047751465c7df8fdea5cfb8b1119035a","displayName":"a190","pseudonym":"Next-Maggot","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":4000.95,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":275,"uniqueMarkets":283},"calibration":59,"profitability":40,"consistency":38,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":275,"description":"D/46 [CI95: D→D, 45-47] (275 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":45,"scoreHigh":47,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.18031877763416826,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.18031877763416826,"error":0.18031877763416826},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25734671731855246,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25734671731855246,"error":0.25734671731855246},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34935458244272033,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34935458244272033,"error":0.34935458244272033},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.43623127942330236,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.43623127942330236,"error":0.43623127942330236},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5461494647782557,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5461494647782557,"error":0.5461494647782557},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6459970297039062,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6459970297039062,"error":0.6459970297039062},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7403636395444324,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7403636395444324,"error":0.7403636395444324},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8474373475670794,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8474373475670794,"error":0.8474373475670794},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9350000405,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9350000405,"error":0.9350000405}],"brierScore":0.1953,"calibrationError":0.4122,"resolvedBets":275,"overconfidenceBias":0.4122,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":10.5,"luck":22,"edge":-113.15},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1946,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.2187,"logLoss":0.5922,"logLossSkill":-73.8872,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.7,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x84d0a541047751465c7df8fdea5cfb8b1119035a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776600356,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-19","walletAgeDays":76,"totalTransactions":2635,"uniqueCounterparties":70,"inboundTxCount":635,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":635,"botScore":60,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.84,"medianTxIntervalSec":10,"burstTxCount":161,"provenanceScore":55,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 161 burst txs, median interval 10s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2635 txs","Diverse counterparties: 70 unique addresses"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T23:20:14.584Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x84d0a541047751465c7df8fdea5cfb8b1119035a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T23:26:39.611Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 76 days, 2635 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 283 markets.","275 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 41.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 11/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 21.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1946 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.5922 (skill: -7388.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.412","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 60)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1953","Brier Skill Score: 21.9% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 283 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T23:26:46.775Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.12703149265562116,"reason":"Wallet age 45d → difficulty factor 0.13","ageDaysUsed":45}}