{"wallet":"0x857d0dad5ca8b71d786c6fc9e9a6a151286f4d68","displayName":"sdsaey","pseudonym":"Pretty-Ephyra","raw":{"totalTrades":1552,"totalVolume":4119.26,"totalPnl":-87.99,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-87.99,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":256,"uniqueMarkets":284},"calibration":8,"profitability":36,"consistency":66,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":51,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":256,"description":"C/51 ± 3 (high confidence, 256 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13012091330533118,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13012091330533118,"error":0.13012091330533118},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25422021652820914,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25422021652820914,"error":0.25422021652820914},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35137676351311425,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35137676351311425,"error":0.35137676351311425},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45794397402439535,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45794397402439535,"error":0.45794397402439535},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5549263108106469,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5549263108106469,"error":0.5549263108106469},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6470523253837701,"totalBets":53,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6470523253837701,"error":0.6470523253837701},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7433312616295673,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7433312616295673,"error":0.7433312616295673},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8484321245041934,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8484321245041934,"error":0.8484321245041934},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9462790956547456,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9462790956547456,"error":0.9462790956547456}],"brierScore":0.4353,"calibrationError":0.6306,"resolvedBets":256,"overconfidenceBias":0.6306,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.5,"edge":-46.06},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4346,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7414,"logLoss":1.1842,"logLossSkill":-148.7644,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x857d0dad5ca8b71d786c6fc9e9a6a151286f4d68","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304322,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2038,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":38,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4821.29,"totalUsdcOut":4282.97,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":38,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.97,"medianTxIntervalSec":3178,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 97% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2038 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:17.613Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":626.31,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x857d0dad5ca8b71d786c6fc9e9a6a151286f4d68","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2917.85,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":114,"largestWithdrawal":135.21,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:18.019Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2038 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,918 in / $0 out across 114 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1552 total trades across 284 markets.","256 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 63.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -74.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4346 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1842 (skill: -14876.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4353","Overconfidence bias: 0.631","Brier Skill Score: -74.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 97% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 284 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:21.402Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}