{"wallet":"0x863134d00841b2e200492805a01e1e2f5defaa53","displayName":"RepTrump","pseudonym":"Elaborate-Attorney","raw":{"totalTrades":160,"totalVolume":3226134.02,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0.875,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":8,"uniqueMarkets":8},"calibration":7,"profitability":40,"consistency":64,"discipline":12,"sampleSize":20,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":31,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":8,"description":"F/31 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 8 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.37850487560805457,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.8,"expectedRate":0.37850487560805457,"error":0.4214951243919455},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5987645940530403,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.5987645940530403,"error":0.4012354059469597},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6199475820688376,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.6199475820688376,"error":0.3800524179311624}],"brierScore":0.2651,"calibrationError":0.4086,"resolvedBets":8,"overconfidenceBias":-0.4086,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":12.5,"luck":32,"edge":117.03},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1673,"resolution":0.0094,"uncertainty":0.1094},"brierSkillScore":-1.4238,"logLoss":0.7243,"logLossSkill":-0.9223,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":547.4,"earlyMoverPct":1,"timelinessScore":100}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x863134d00841b2e200492805a01e1e2f5defaa53","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1729168900,"firstTxDate":"2024-10-17","walletAgeDays":550,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":5216888.82,"totalUsdcOut":3884201.57,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":71,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 550 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $9,101,090","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:17.199Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x863134d00841b2e200492805a01e1e2f5defaa53","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:17.280Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 550 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","160 total trades across 8 markets.","8 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.","Skill: 13/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns)."],"flags":["Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","Thin resolved data: only 8 resolved bets"],"greenFlags":["On-chain: 550-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T06:34:17.280Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776753257280}