{"wallet":"0x87945f607904fbc21d407f2e92640d5fcd29a22c","displayName":"Unconscious-Mode","pseudonym":"Unconscious-Mode","raw":{"totalTrades":587,"totalVolume":9989.97,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":48,"uniqueMarkets":227},"calibration":23,"profitability":40,"consistency":69,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":43,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":48,"description":"D/43 ± 15 (low confidence, 48 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.046308032658189904,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.046308032658189904,"error":0.046308032658189904},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.12000000053536108,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.12000000053536108,"error":0.12000000053536108},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2585294382004271,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2585294382004271,"error":0.2585294382004271},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34028881574751024,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34028881574751024,"error":0.34028881574751024},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4514722963728814,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4514722963728814,"error":0.4514722963728814},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5585765830309247,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5585765830309247,"error":0.5585765830309247},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6415638807845258,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6415638807845258,"error":0.6415638807845258},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.729548353777151,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.729548353777151,"error":0.729548353777151},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9100000810000081,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9100000810000081,"error":0.9100000810000081}],"brierScore":0.3062,"calibrationError":0.5205,"resolvedBets":48,"overconfidenceBias":0.5205,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":44.7,"edge":-89.34},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3058,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.2249,"logLoss":0.8146,"logLossSkill":-102.0216,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":22.1,"earlyMoverPct":0.958,"timelinessScore":60}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x87945f607904fbc21d407f2e92640d5fcd29a22c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771537392,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-19","walletAgeDays":59,"totalTransactions":887,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":885,"totalUsdcIn":5198.22,"totalUsdcOut":5198.21,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 887 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,396","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:06.616Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x87945f607904fbc21d407f2e92640d5fcd29a22c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0.07,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":16,"largestWithdrawal":0.01,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-19","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:06.434Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 59 days, 887 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 16 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-19.","587 total trades across 227 markets.","48 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 52.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 45/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -22.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3058 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8146 (skill: -10202.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 22.1 days before resolution, 96% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.520","Brier Skill Score: -22.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Early mover: avg 22 days before resolution","Well-diversified: 227 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:07.843Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}