{"wallet":"0x88d80b0a1c99214630a7b5ed52b64b43f1698b8e","displayName":"echttex","pseudonym":"Brisk-Pick","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":5652.45,"totalPnl":2.32,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":2.32,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":165,"uniqueMarkets":165},"calibration":8,"profitability":40,"consistency":61,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":62,"trustScore":43,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":165,"description":"D/43 [CI95: D→D, 41-45] (165 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":41,"scoreHigh":45,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.040000000000000036,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.040000000000000036,"error":0.040000000000000036},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14995008065094084,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14995008065094084,"error":0.14995008065094084},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25537493746445444,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25537493746445444,"error":0.25537493746445444},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3548960220864189,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3548960220864189,"error":0.3548960220864189},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45699194897712436,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45699194897712436,"error":0.45699194897712436},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5546296168747397,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5546296168747397,"error":0.5546296168747397},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6377051986844454,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6377051986844454,"error":0.6377051986844454},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7615015323205796,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7615015323205796,"error":0.7615015323205796},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8539619747895302,"totalBets":27,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8539619747895302,"error":0.8539619747895302},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9280878038821182,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9280878038821182,"error":0.9280878038821182}],"brierScore":0.431,"calibrationError":0.6252,"resolvedBets":165,"overconfidenceBias":0.6252,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.5,"edge":-34.29},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4302,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7239,"logLoss":1.1751,"logLossSkill":-147.6152,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x88d80b0a1c99214630a7b5ed52b64b43f1698b8e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772042060,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-25","walletAgeDays":58,"totalTransactions":2426,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":426,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":1782.41,"totalUsdcOut":1311.32,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":426,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.06,"medianTxIntervalSec":6,"burstTxCount":196,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 196 burst txs, median interval 6s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2426 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:38:33.723Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":468.77,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x88d80b0a1c99214630a7b5ed52b64b43f1698b8e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1329.94,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":35,"largestWithdrawal":173.21,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:38:32.319Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 58 days, 2426 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,330 in / $0 out across 35 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-01.","3100 total trades across 165 markets.","165 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -72.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4302 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1751 (skill: -14761.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.431","Overconfidence bias: 0.625","Brier Skill Score: -72.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$2 total PnL","Well-diversified: 165 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T06:38:38.892Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.17829629825718363,"reason":"Wallet age 53d → difficulty factor 0.18","ageDaysUsed":53}}