{"wallet":"0x89878c25fe61899e1d6fabec2d058c64c10902f3","displayName":"Trader 0x89878c...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":487,"totalVolume":36301.31,"totalPnl":-4426.77,"realizedPnl":-3890.03,"unrealizedPnl":-536.74,"winRate":0.364,"openPositions":24,"resolvedBets":22,"uniqueMarkets":92},"calibration":49,"profitability":16,"consistency":0,"discipline":90,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":49,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":22,"description":"D/38 ± 15 (low confidence, 22 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2783584873080967,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.6,"expectedRate":0.2783584873080967,"error":0.3216415126919033},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.32431429229224396,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.32431429229224396,"error":0.1814571494351011},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4382500005441692,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.4382500005441692,"error":0.06174999945583082},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5500666671672229,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5500666671672229,"error":0.5500666671672229},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6313226330832764,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.6313226330832764,"error":0.1313226330832764},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7400000010209167,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.7400000010209167,"error":0.2599999989790833}],"brierScore":0.2461,"calibrationError":0.2408,"resolvedBets":22,"overconfidenceBias":0.0485,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":42.3,"luck":77.6,"edge":-64.95},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0806,"resolution":0.0697,"uncertainty":0.2314},"brierSkillScore":-0.0635,"logLoss":0.6867,"logLossSkill":-0.0476,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x89878c25fe61899e1d6fabec2d058c64c10902f3","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1770902703,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-12","walletAgeDays":66,"totalTransactions":823,"uniqueCounterparties":9,"inboundTxCount":14,"outboundTxCount":149,"totalEthReceived":"9.710000","totalEthSent":"100.000000","netEthFlow":"-90.290000","usdcTransfers":647,"totalUsdcIn":37191.2,"totalUsdcOut":37186.84,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":13,"contractInteractions":136,"botScore":40,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.5,"medianTxIntervalSec":24,"burstTxCount":27,"provenanceScore":65,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Possible automated trading: 27 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 823 txs","Significant USDC flow: $74,378"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:54.861Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":4431.13,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x89878c25fe61899e1d6fabec2d058c64c10902f3","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:54.619Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 66 days, 823 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","487 total trades across 92 markets.","22 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 24.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 42/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 78/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -6.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0806 RES=0.0697 UNC=0.2314.","Log loss: 0.6867 (skill: -4.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["High luck component: 78/100 — returns may not persist","Net loss: -$4427 total PnL","Low win rate: 36%","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)"],"greenFlags":["Strong resolution/discrimination: forecasts meaningfully diverge from base rate","Well-diversified: 92 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:55.542Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}