{"wallet":"0x8f6a1948910792269c99fa6650a368a7a0675c08","displayName":"yayeyuya","pseudonym":"Rash-Cow","raw":{"totalTrades":1749,"totalVolume":24002.61,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":458,"uniqueMarkets":1260},"calibration":70,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":458,"description":"D/48 ± 3 (high confidence, 458 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03741002821491046,"totalBets":115,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.03741002821491046,"error":0.03741002821491046},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15252355740975607,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15252355740975607,"error":0.15252355740975607},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24532684065944466,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24532684065944466,"error":0.24532684065944466},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34854917262855617,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34854917262855617,"error":0.34854917262855617},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.459361380902554,"totalBets":101,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.459361380902554,"error":0.459361380902554},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5277728893669142,"totalBets":59,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5277728893669142,"error":0.5277728893669142},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6345216108191474,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6345216108191474,"error":0.6345216108191474},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7350000454500083,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7350000454500083,"error":0.7350000454500083},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8192385650178,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8192385650178,"error":0.8192385650178},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9200000092000004,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9200000092000004,"error":0.9200000092000004}],"brierScore":0.1468,"calibrationError":0.3184,"resolvedBets":458,"overconfidenceBias":0.3184,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":21.8,"luck":43.4,"edge":-687.27},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1461,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.4126,"logLoss":0.4449,"logLossSkill":-55.2698,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":6.6,"earlyMoverPct":0.133,"timelinessScore":12}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x8f6a1948910792269c99fa6650a368a7a0675c08","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773274775,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-12","walletAgeDays":39,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":6084.43,"totalUsdcOut":5654.93,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,739","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:25:26.298Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x8f6a1948910792269c99fa6650a368a7a0675c08","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4800.66,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":454,"largestWithdrawal":322.93,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-13","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:25:26.020Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 39 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,801 in / $0 out across 454 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-13.","1749 total trades across 1260 markets.","458 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 31.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 22/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 43/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 41.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1461 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.4449 (skill: -5527.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 6.6 days before resolution, 13% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.318","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1468","Brier Skill Score: 41.3% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 1260 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T05:25:31.448Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}