{"wallet":"0x8f99ed879e946111b82632e4963415dc4943df9e","displayName":"SuspiciouslyWealthyFurry","pseudonym":"Gaseous-Collateral","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":6388.75,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":95,"uniqueMarkets":95},"calibration":48,"profitability":40,"consistency":39,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":95,"description":"D/46 [CI95: D→D, 45-47] (95 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":45,"scoreHigh":47,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.049579051045432886,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.049579051045432886,"error":0.049579051045432886},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1472733444028084,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1472733444028084,"error":0.1472733444028084},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24594342903739674,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24594342903739674,"error":0.24594342903739674},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3461399367455745,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3461399367455745,"error":0.3461399367455745},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4707988441493553,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4707988441493553,"error":0.4707988441493553},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5394008817704138,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5394008817704138,"error":0.5394008817704138},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6324053400015367,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6324053400015367,"error":0.6324053400015367},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.772311291577697,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.772311291577697,"error":0.772311291577697},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8426202746595232,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8426202746595232,"error":0.8426202746595232}],"brierScore":0.2211,"calibrationError":0.4401,"resolvedBets":95,"overconfidenceBias":0.4401,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":7.2,"luck":25,"edge":-94.54},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2205,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.1155,"logLoss":0.6303,"logLossSkill":-78.7119,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":2.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":3}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x8f99ed879e946111b82632e4963415dc4943df9e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781248842,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-12","walletAgeDays":18,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":71,"totalUsdcIn":543.13,"totalUsdcOut":543.12,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 18 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T07:19:13.267Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x8f99ed879e946111b82632e4963415dc4943df9e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":393.13,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":59,"largestWithdrawal":152.73,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-06-12","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T07:19:13.475Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $393 in / $0 out across 59 withdrawal tx since 2026-06-12.","3100 total trades across 95 markets.","95 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 44.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 7/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 11.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2205 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6303 (skill: -7871.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 2.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.440","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 7 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 95 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T07:19:20.322Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 7 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":7}}