{"wallet":"0x900939fada83b830ae89e39c031e11e44bd91621","displayName":"skewerpacil","pseudonym":"Troubled-Cloth","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":1332.28,"totalPnl":-848.96,"realizedPnl":607.65,"unrealizedPnl":-1456.61,"winRate":0.034,"openPositions":166,"resolvedBets":834,"uniqueMarkets":571},"calibration":59,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":98,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":35,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":834,"description":"D/35 [CI95: D→D, 35-35] (834 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":35,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.0502133144475924,"totalBets":706,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.0113314447592068,"expectedRate":0.0502133144475924,"error":0.038881869688385605},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16204999999999997,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16204999999999997,"error":0.16204999999999997},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2612666666666667,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2612666666666667,"error":0.2612666666666667},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3468142857142857,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.35714285714285715,"expectedRate":0.3468142857142857,"error":0.010328571428571465},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4747,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.7142857142857143,"expectedRate":0.4747,"error":0.2395857142857143},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.5}],"brierScore":0.0375,"calibrationError":0.0738,"resolvedBets":834,"overconfidenceBias":0.065,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":53,"luck":46.6,"edge":-73.97},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0172,"resolution":0.0118,"uncertainty":0.0324},"brierSkillScore":-0.1571,"logLoss":0.1527,"logLossSkill":-0.0389,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x900939fada83b830ae89e39c031e11e44bd91621","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775807215,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-10","walletAgeDays":14,"totalTransactions":2940,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":940,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1992,"totalUsdcIn":10946.45,"totalUsdcOut":5180,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":10,"contractInteractions":940,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":4,"burstTxCount":480,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 14 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 480 burst txs, median interval 4s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2940 txs","Significant USDC flow: $16,126","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T10:36:54.022Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":6615.41,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x900939fada83b830ae89e39c031e11e44bd91621","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":5180,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-10","fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T10:36:53.322Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 14 days, 2940 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $5,180 out across 0 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-10.","3100 total trades across 571 markets.","834 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 7.4% — excellent.","Skill: 53/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 47/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -15.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0172 RES=0.0118 UNC=0.0324.","Log loss: 0.1527 (skill: -3.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -15.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Penny-lottery strategy: 85% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$849 total PnL","Low win rate: 3%","PnL divergence: $6615 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 14 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0375","Strong live edge: 166 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 571 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-24T10:37:00.569Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 14 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":14}}