{"wallet":"0x91fe1bf9e6b126acd4bb81500896ab51c6eca685","displayName":"0xFFFFFFFF-001","pseudonym":"Super-Clef","raw":{"totalTrades":2696,"totalVolume":7082.53,"totalPnl":1.95,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":1.95,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":188,"uniqueMarkets":192},"calibration":36,"profitability":40,"consistency":69,"discipline":82,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":63,"trustScore":57,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":188,"description":"C/57 ± 8 (medium confidence, 188 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.020537702871329055,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.020537702871329055,"error":0.020537702871329055},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1592336609439216,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1592336609439216,"error":0.1592336609439216},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2494395742762562,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2494395742762562,"error":0.2494395742762562},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.37089612566973645,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.37089612566973645,"error":0.37089612566973645},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45440278135341505,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45440278135341505,"error":0.45440278135341505},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5353385513128108,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5353385513128108,"error":0.5353385513128108},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.63473241212522,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.63473241212522,"error":0.63473241212522},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7387815877585129,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7387815877585129,"error":0.7387815877585129},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8,"error":0.8},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9455220097374504,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9455220097374504,"error":0.9455220097374504}],"brierScore":0.2426,"calibrationError":0.471,"resolvedBets":188,"overconfidenceBias":0.471,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":3.5,"luck":19.5,"edge":-97.48},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2419,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0296,"logLoss":0.6914,"logLossSkill":-86.4346,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x91fe1bf9e6b126acd4bb81500896ab51c6eca685","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776485616,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-18","walletAgeDays":2,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5781.48,"totalUsdcOut":4822.34,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 2 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,604","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:29:16.918Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":957.19,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x91fe1bf9e6b126acd4bb81500896ab51c6eca685","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4379.67,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":217,"largestWithdrawal":133.03,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-18","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:30:51.317Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 2 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,380 in / $0 out across 217 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.","2696 total trades across 192 markets.","188 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 47.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 20/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 3.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2419 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6914 (skill: -8643.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.471","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 2 days old on Polygon"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$2 total PnL","Well-diversified: 192 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T04:30:51.320Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}