{"wallet":"0x92053541c72e5235590a7d4608a9f077cb4ba945","displayName":"Trader 0x920535...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":32032.51,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":42,"uniqueMarkets":42},"calibration":17,"profitability":40,"consistency":78,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":42,"description":"D/38 [CI95: D→D, 36-40] (42 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":36,"scoreHigh":40,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.39360982057841065,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.39360982057841065,"error":0.39360982057841065},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46733282714778546,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46733282714778546,"error":0.46733282714778546},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.547323092630879,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.547323092630879,"error":0.547323092630879},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6496240191323245,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6496240191323245,"error":0.6496240191323245},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7393357715054633,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7393357715054633,"error":0.7393357715054633},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8518522935193508,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8518522935193508,"error":0.8518522935193508}],"brierScore":0.358,"calibrationError":0.5888,"resolvedBets":42,"overconfidenceBias":0.5888,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.4,"edge":-67.01},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3575,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.4322,"logLoss":0.9309,"logLossSkill":-116.7242,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":6.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":6}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x92053541c72e5235590a7d4608a9f077cb4ba945","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776797496,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-21","walletAgeDays":7,"totalTransactions":2586,"uniqueCounterparties":41,"inboundTxCount":586,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":26077.4,"totalUsdcOut":14709.71,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":586,"botScore":40,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.49,"medianTxIntervalSec":12,"burstTxCount":73,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 7 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 73 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2586 txs","Significant USDC flow: $40,787"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T09:57:38.937Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x92053541c72e5235590a7d4608a9f077cb4ba945","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":13100.73,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":127,"largestWithdrawal":626.39,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-22","fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T09:57:39.035Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 7 days, 2586 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $13,101 in / $0 out across 127 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-22.","3100 total trades across 42 markets.","42 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 58.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -43.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3575 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.9309 (skill: -11672.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 6.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.358","Overconfidence bias: 0.589","Brier Skill Score: -43.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)","On-chain coverage gap: 127 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 42 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history.","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 42 unique markets","On-chain: $13,101 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 127 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-29T09:57:45.448Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}