{"wallet":"0x93173b86dbe2f2dd9922c751806d306b48cf5a5f","displayName":"trader-93173b86","pseudonym":"Icy-Pride","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":11208.87,"totalPnl":-421.3,"realizedPnl":-45.11,"unrealizedPnl":-376.18,"winRate":0.075,"openPositions":70,"resolvedBets":563,"uniqueMarkets":526},"calibration":1,"profitability":32,"consistency":63,"discipline":95,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":53,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":563,"description":"D/46 [CI95: D→D, 45-47] (563 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":45,"scoreHigh":47,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.040285802806727576,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":21,"actualRate":0.5384615384615384,"expectedRate":0.040285802806727576,"error":0.4981757356548109},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15846394223154073,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.1875,"expectedRate":0.15846394223154073,"error":0.029036057768459272},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24789432738743056,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.034482758620689655,"expectedRate":0.24789432738743056,"error":0.2134115687667409},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3546589540198454,"totalBets":67,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3546589540198454,"error":0.3546589540198454},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4534910263026398,"totalBets":113,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4534910263026398,"error":0.4534910263026398},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5417947143062137,"totalBets":132,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5417947143062137,"error":0.5417947143062137},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6349772198972505,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.025,"expectedRate":0.6349772198972505,"error":0.6099772198972505},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7466711954194605,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.023255813953488372,"expectedRate":0.7466711954194605,"error":0.7234153814659721},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8446213264611355,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.10714285714285714,"expectedRate":0.8446213264611355,"error":0.7374784693182784},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9676106742618732,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":11,"actualRate":0.6875,"expectedRate":0.9676106742618732,"error":0.2801106742618732}],"brierScore":0.307,"calibrationError":0.4931,"resolvedBets":563,"overconfidenceBias":0.4225,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":5.6,"luck":23.8,"edge":-85.38},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2667,"resolution":0.0297,"uncertainty":0.069},"brierSkillScore":-3.4464,"logLoss":0.8912,"logLossSkill":-2.3583,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x93173b86dbe2f2dd9922c751806d306b48cf5a5f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771787616,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-22","walletAgeDays":68,"totalTransactions":2987,"uniqueCounterparties":12,"inboundTxCount":34,"outboundTxCount":953,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":33508.98,"totalUsdcOut":32140.24,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":6,"contractInteractions":953,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.72,"medianTxIntervalSec":1088,"burstTxCount":163,"provenanceScore":70,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":[],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2987 txs","Significant USDC flow: $65,649","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T11:13:59.523Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1790.04,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x93173b86dbe2f2dd9922c751806d306b48cf5a5f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":3542.58,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":55,"largestWithdrawal":428.57,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-24","fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T11:14:57.808Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 68 days, 2987 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $3,543 in / $0 out across 55 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-24.","3100 total trades across 526 markets.","563 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 24/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -344.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2667 RES=0.0297 UNC=0.0690.","Log loss: 0.8912 (skill: -235.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.422","Brier Skill Score: -344.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$421 total PnL","Low win rate: 7%"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 526 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-02T11:14:58.036Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.25637515971843106,"reason":"Wallet age 68d → difficulty factor 0.26","ageDaysUsed":68}}