{"wallet":"0x9386612085fc533a0d19d1a564480d1309689d87","displayName":"Trader 0x938661...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":2060,"totalVolume":5257.2,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":164,"uniqueMarkets":996},"calibration":78,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":49,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":164,"description":"D/49 ± 8 (medium confidence, 164 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06500002638597274,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06500002638597274,"error":0.06500002638597274},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15164992289357634,"totalBets":51,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15164992289357634,"error":0.15164992289357634},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25616951257070997,"totalBets":59,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25616951257070997,"error":0.25616951257070997},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3404333909044947,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3404333909044947,"error":0.3404333909044947},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.43749888819751953,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.43749888819751953,"error":0.43749888819751953}],"brierScore":0.0702,"calibrationError":0.2504,"resolvedBets":164,"overconfidenceBias":0.2504,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":29.9,"luck":20.6,"edge":-284.48},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0694,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.7192,"logLoss":0.295,"logLossSkill":-36.3072,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9386612085fc533a0d19d1a564480d1309689d87","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776001899,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-12","walletAgeDays":7,"totalTransactions":2511,"uniqueCounterparties":7,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":511,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"53.924881","netEthFlow":"-53.924881","usdcTransfers":1951,"totalUsdcIn":2862.97,"totalUsdcOut":2837.19,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":35,"contractInteractions":511,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.93,"medianTxIntervalSec":546,"burstTxCount":28,"provenanceScore":55,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 7 days old","Counterparty concentration: 93% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2511 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:10:57.625Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 7 days, 2511 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","2060 total trades across 996 markets.","164 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 25.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 30/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 71.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0694 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.2950 (skill: -3630.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.250","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0702","Brier Skill Score: 71.9% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 996 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:11:05.721Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}