{"wallet":"0x9412cdfc1e3171e1aabb013d0f494986445d0cd0","displayName":"gansinimen","pseudonym":"Svelte-Chicory","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":44811.36,"totalPnl":-13428.62,"realizedPnl":64.12,"unrealizedPnl":-13492.74,"winRate":0.005,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":408,"uniqueMarkets":299},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":61,"discipline":82,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":45,"trustScore":31,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":408,"description":"F/31 [CI95: F→F, 30-32] (408 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":30,"scoreHigh":32,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06327142857142858,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06327142857142858,"error":0.06327142857142858},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14280000000000004,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14280000000000004,"error":0.14280000000000004},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24613076923076915,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24613076923076915,"error":0.24613076923076915},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3189999999999999,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3189999999999999,"error":0.3189999999999999},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4341142857142858,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.4341142857142858,"error":0.29125714285714294},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.54945,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.54945,"error":0.54945},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6442519999999999,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6442519999999999,"error":0.6442519999999999},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7395372093023257,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7395372093023257,"error":0.7395372093023257},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8419611111111114,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8419611111111114,"error":0.8419611111111114},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9332035714285716,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9332035714285716,"error":0.9332035714285716}],"brierScore":0.4433,"calibrationError":0.5989,"resolvedBets":408,"overconfidenceBias":0.5989,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.1,"luck":34.3,"edge":-40.73},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4388,"resolution":0.0007,"uncertainty":0.0049},"brierSkillScore":-89.8882,"logLoss":1.2422,"logLossSkill":-39.1246,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9412cdfc1e3171e1aabb013d0f494986445d0cd0","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774972147,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-31","walletAgeDays":91,"totalTransactions":2989,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":989,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":17191.45,"totalUsdcOut":15128.52,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":989,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":902,"burstTxCount":81,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2989 txs","Significant USDC flow: $32,320","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T04:46:24.059Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":15491.55,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x9412cdfc1e3171e1aabb013d0f494986445d0cd0","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":6397.99,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":7,"largestWithdrawal":1562.15,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-31","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T04:54:43.831Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 91 days, 2989 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $6,398 in / $0 out across 7 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.","3100 total trades across 299 markets.","408 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 59.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 34/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -8988.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4388 RES=0.0007 UNC=0.0049.","Log loss: 1.2422 (skill: -3912.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4433","Overconfidence bias: 0.599","Brier Skill Score: -8988.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$13429 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $15492 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 299 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T04:54:50.692Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.34765515760753507,"reason":"Wallet age 91d → difficulty factor 0.35","ageDaysUsed":91}}