{"wallet":"0x951bd740ef681d05891ca35440232488271d433e","displayName":"Pessimistic-Harp","pseudonym":"Pessimistic-Harp","raw":{"totalTrades":1258,"totalVolume":39783.99,"totalPnl":9.79,"realizedPnl":-57.84,"unrealizedPnl":67.63,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":147,"uniqueMarkets":149},"calibration":28,"profitability":40,"consistency":78,"discipline":88,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":34,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":147,"description":"D/46 ± 8 (medium confidence, 147 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07908085128344988,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.07908085128344988,"error":0.07908085128344988},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2642741643929212,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2642741643929212,"error":0.2642741643929212},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35762672712987925,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35762672712987925,"error":0.35762672712987925},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4585659060580413,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4585659060580413,"error":0.4585659060580413},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5501775318965293,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5501775318965293,"error":0.5501775318965293},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6369376999962277,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6369376999962277,"error":0.6369376999962277},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7286195335843287,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7286195335843287,"error":0.7286195335843287},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8216016489518125,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8216016489518125,"error":0.8216016489518125}],"brierScore":0.2644,"calibrationError":0.5036,"resolvedBets":147,"overconfidenceBias":0.5036,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":13.4,"edge":-99.05},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2637,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0578,"logLoss":0.7243,"logLossSkill":-90.604,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x951bd740ef681d05891ca35440232488271d433e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776311574,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":3,"totalTransactions":2274,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":274,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":33618.14,"totalUsdcOut":32996.16,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":274,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":122,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 3 days old — possible sybil","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2274 txs","Significant USDC flow: $66,614","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:06.917Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":612.19,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x951bd740ef681d05891ca35440232488271d433e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":32618.74,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":253,"largestWithdrawal":604.94,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-19","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:08.712Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2274 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $32,619 in / $0 out across 253 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-19.","1258 total trades across 149 markets.","147 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 13/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -5.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2637 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7243 (skill: -9060.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.504","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 3 days old on Polygon","On-chain coverage gap: 253 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 147 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$10 total PnL","Well-diversified: 149 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $32,619 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 253 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:08.896Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}