{"wallet":"0x9608fd48e1150bf674439acce2ac1cfe21a6ca1e","displayName":"Trader 0x9608fd...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":5651.29,"totalPnl":-11.47,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-11.47,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":457,"uniqueMarkets":461},"calibration":86,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":13,"trustScore":44,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":457,"description":"D/44 [CI95: D→D, 44-44] (457 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":44,"scoreHigh":44,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.050290224009054786,"totalBets":266,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.050290224009054786,"error":0.050290224009054786},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15074753376935987,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15074753376935987,"error":0.15074753376935987},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24573955969687367,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24573955969687367,"error":0.24573955969687367},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3456780671257821,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3456780671257821,"error":0.3456780671257821},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45026790032976327,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45026790032976327,"error":0.45026790032976327},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5406718894890773,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5406718894890773,"error":0.5406718894890773},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6444309242320755,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6444309242320755,"error":0.6444309242320755},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7301724976932576,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7301724976932576,"error":0.7301724976932576},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.84,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.84,"error":0.84},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9792501444282624,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9792501444282624,"error":0.9792501444282624}],"brierScore":0.048,"calibrationError":0.1548,"resolvedBets":457,"overconfidenceBias":0.1548,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":41.4,"luck":29.7,"edge":-146.31},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0475,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.8078,"logLoss":0.195,"logLossSkill":-23.661,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9608fd48e1150bf674439acce2ac1cfe21a6ca1e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775117697,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-02","walletAgeDays":30,"totalTransactions":2927,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":927,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":6009.63,"totalUsdcOut":5953.93,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":927,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":6,"burstTxCount":378,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 378 burst txs, median interval 6s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2927 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,964","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T09:29:07.020Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":67.17,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x9608fd48e1150bf674439acce2ac1cfe21a6ca1e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5435.66,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":45,"largestWithdrawal":426.84,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-03","fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T09:29:07.117Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 30 days, 2927 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,436 in / $0 out across 45 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-03.","3100 total trades across 461 markets.","457 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 15.5% — good.","Skill: 41/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 30/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 80.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0475 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.1950 (skill: -2366.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.155","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 29 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.048","Brier Skill Score: 80.8% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 461 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-02T09:29:13.717Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 29 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":29}}