{"wallet":"0x983848691c445a1e235c1e49a69c49d8c4d3bcfe","displayName":"alskdjhfg","pseudonym":"Left-Age","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":23978.7,"totalPnl":-47517.23,"realizedPnl":-33.86,"unrealizedPnl":-47483.37,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":344},"calibration":30,"profitability":0,"consistency":85,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":43,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/43 [CI95: D→D, 42-44] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":42,"scoreHigh":44,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.053808823529411756,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.053808823529411756,"error":0.053808823529411756},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15553043478260878,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15553043478260878,"error":0.15553043478260878},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24553260869565213,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24553260869565213,"error":0.24553260869565213},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3550973333333332,"totalBets":150,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3550973333333332,"error":0.3550973333333332},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4593535714285712,"totalBets":168,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4593535714285712,"error":0.4593535714285712},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5417386666666668,"totalBets":150,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5417386666666668,"error":0.5417386666666668},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6345860000000002,"totalBets":100,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6345860000000002,"error":0.6345860000000002},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.743575,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.743575,"error":0.743575},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8514949999999999,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8514949999999999,"error":0.8514949999999999},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9354666666666668,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9354666666666668,"error":0.9354666666666668}],"brierScore":0.2732,"calibrationError":0.4654,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4654,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":4.2,"luck":18.6,"edge":-70.15},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2724,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0926,"logLoss":0.7922,"logLossSkill":-99.1858,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x983848691c445a1e235c1e49a69c49d8c4d3bcfe","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1780126504,"firstTxDate":"2026-05-30","walletAgeDays":33,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2,"totalUsdcIn":2662.85,"totalUsdcOut":2662.85,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-02T20:15:32.767Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":47517.23,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x983848691c445a1e235c1e49a69c49d8c4d3bcfe","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-02T20:15:32.602Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 33 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 344 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 46.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -9.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2724 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7922 (skill: -9918.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.465","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$47517 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $47517 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 344 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-02T20:15:39.634Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}