{"wallet":"0x98e175ea4c584ceafada141d3d22bd4cda0871e9","displayName":"CrownOwner","pseudonym":"Drafty-Filth","raw":{"totalTrades":607,"totalVolume":1653.15,"totalPnl":-1307,"realizedPnl":-29.47,"unrealizedPnl":-1277.52,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":57,"uniqueMarkets":65},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":78,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":32,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":57,"description":"F/32 ± 8 (medium confidence, 57 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04958592262323581,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04958592262323581,"error":0.04958592262323581},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.11000008900043612,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.11000008900043612,"error":0.11000008900043612},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3669567600543062,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3669567600543062,"error":0.3669567600543062},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46939731756398617,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46939731756398617,"error":0.46939731756398617},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5607067625680873,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5607067625680873,"error":0.5607067625680873},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6498460273439504,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6498460273439504,"error":0.6498460273439504},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7420995193999094,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7420995193999094,"error":0.7420995193999094},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8383261803254828,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8383261803254828,"error":0.8383261803254828},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9568311595038458,"totalBets":27,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9568311595038458,"error":0.9568311595038458}],"brierScore":0.6653,"calibrationError":0.7745,"resolvedBets":57,"overconfidenceBias":0.7745,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":63.9,"edge":-0.87},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.6647,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-1.6612,"logLoss":2.1876,"logLossSkill":-275.6584,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":7,"earlyMoverPct":0.07,"timelinessScore":10}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x98e175ea4c584ceafada141d3d22bd4cda0871e9","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1766015711,"firstTxDate":"2025-12-17","walletAgeDays":124,"totalTransactions":675,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":673,"totalUsdcIn":1677.64,"totalUsdcOut":1331.4,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 675 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:25:49.441Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1653.24,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x98e175ea4c584ceafada141d3d22bd4cda0871e9","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":220.46,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":32,"largestWithdrawal":19.45,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-21","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:25:47.220Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 124 days, 675 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $220 in / $0 out across 32 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-21.","607 total trades across 65 markets.","57 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 77.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 64/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -166.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.6647 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 2.1876 (skill: -27565.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 7.0 days before resolution, 7% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.6653","Overconfidence bias: 0.774","Brier Skill Score: -166.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$1307 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $1653 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 65 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T21:25:49.748Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}