{"wallet":"0x9919a655c2694462950d9ca5a0307202740a0a5d","displayName":"nasp-bugatti","pseudonym":"Stiff-Radiator","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":16435.73,"totalPnl":-23100.4,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-23100.4,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":598},"calibration":19,"profitability":0,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":13,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/13 [CI95: F→F, 12-14] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":12,"scoreHigh":14,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04727168458781368,"totalBets":558,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04727168458781368,"error":0.04727168458781368},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.123725,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.123725,"error":0.123725},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2323333333333333,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2323333333333333,"error":0.2323333333333333},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.379,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.379,"error":0.379},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5913999999999999,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5913999999999999,"error":0.5913999999999999},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8891666666666665,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8891666666666665,"error":0.8891666666666665},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9564274038461538,"totalBets":416,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9564274038461538,"error":0.9564274038461538}],"brierScore":0.3887,"calibrationError":0.4347,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4347,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":7.8,"luck":13.7,"edge":-167.75},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3882,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.5549,"logLoss":1.4084,"logLossSkill":-177.1165,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9919a655c2694462950d9ca5a0307202740a0a5d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776084025,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-13","walletAgeDays":65,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":24617.65,"totalUsdcOut":23992.52,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $48,610","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T00:17:09.860Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":23725.53,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x9919a655c2694462950d9ca5a0307202740a0a5d","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":23950.1,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":956,"largestWithdrawal":72.79,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-13","fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T00:17:09.450Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 65 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $23,950 in / $0 out across 956 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-13.","3100 total trades across 598 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 43.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 8/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -55.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3882 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.4084 (skill: -17711.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3887","Overconfidence bias: 0.435","Brier Skill Score: -55.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 56% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 15 pts","Net loss: -$23100 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $23726 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 598 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $23,950 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 956 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-18T00:17:17.091Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.23738157421126602,"reason":"Wallet age 64d → difficulty factor 0.24","ageDaysUsed":64}}