{"wallet":"0x9a46aec5ff2601971da158f7384b7dcb5a193e9e","displayName":"SIMESABAChrome2","pseudonym":"Vast-Heifer","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":13624.36,"totalPnl":-3939.67,"realizedPnl":-6.23,"unrealizedPnl":-3933.44,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":79},"calibration":27,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":40,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/40 [CI95: D→D, 39-40] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":39,"scoreHigh":40,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.039534782608695654,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.039534782608695654,"error":0.039534782608695654},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13847000000000004,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13847000000000004,"error":0.13847000000000004},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25664545454545457,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25664545454545457,"error":0.25664545454545457},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35376521739130434,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35376521739130434,"error":0.35376521739130434},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45962053571428474,"totalBets":224,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45962053571428474,"error":0.45962053571428474},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5202454545454535,"totalBets":506,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5202454545454535,"error":0.5202454545454535},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6365366666666666,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6365366666666666,"error":0.6365366666666666},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7507625,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7507625,"error":0.7507625},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8601937500000001,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8601937500000001,"error":0.8601937500000001},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9573499999999999,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9573499999999999,"error":0.9573499999999999}],"brierScore":0.2752,"calibrationError":0.4972,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4972,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.3,"luck":15.2,"edge":-37.74},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2746,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1008,"logLoss":0.7845,"logLossSkill":-98.2123,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9a46aec5ff2601971da158f7384b7dcb5a193e9e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777108516,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-25","walletAgeDays":70,"totalTransactions":2122,"uniqueCounterparties":82,"inboundTxCount":122,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1332,"totalUsdcIn":1879.75,"totalUsdcOut":1879.75,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":122,"botScore":30,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.02,"medianTxIntervalSec":332,"burstTxCount":26,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 26 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2122 txs","Diverse counterparties: 82 unique addresses","Diverse trading network: 82 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-05T04:08:32.171Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":3939.67,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x9a46aec5ff2601971da158f7384b7dcb5a193e9e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":16.02,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":6,"largestWithdrawal":5,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-28","fetchedAt":"2026-07-05T04:09:50.025Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 70 days, 2122 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $16 in / $0 out across 6 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-28.","3100 total trades across 79 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -10.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2746 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7845 (skill: -9821.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.497","Brier Skill Score: -10.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$3940 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $3940 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 79 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-05T04:09:51.136Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.25637515971843106,"reason":"Wallet age 68d → difficulty factor 0.26","ageDaysUsed":68}}