{"wallet":"0x9b9ff79cdc3c6dc3abbc494b06ea577567bea26a","displayName":"BigFishSushiChief","pseudonym":"Super-Cornerstone","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":179625.43,"totalPnl":179584.57,"realizedPnl":220263.26,"unrealizedPnl":-40678.69,"winRate":0.004,"openPositions":20,"resolvedBets":980,"uniqueMarkets":116},"calibration":38,"profitability":100,"consistency":71,"discipline":92,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":66,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":980,"description":"D/38 ± 3 (high confidence, 980 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010651867219916863,"totalBets":964,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.004149377593360996,"expectedRate":0.010651867219916863,"error":0.006502489626555867},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2619,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2619,"error":0.2619},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7045,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7045,"error":0.7045},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8884,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8884,"error":0.8884},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9602600000000001,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9602600000000001,"error":0.9602600000000001}],"brierScore":0.0162,"calibrationError":0.02,"resolvedBets":980,"overconfidenceBias":0.02,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":57.6,"luck":41.6,"edge":-28.54},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0122,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0.0041},"brierSkillScore":-2.9931,"logLoss":0.0726,"logLossSkill":-1.7386,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9b9ff79cdc3c6dc3abbc494b06ea577567bea26a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772495841,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-02","walletAgeDays":49,"totalTransactions":2857,"uniqueCounterparties":31,"inboundTxCount":857,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":564044.02,"totalUsdcOut":479894.71,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":857,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.8,"medianTxIntervalSec":656,"burstTxCount":35,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2857 txs","Significant USDC flow: $1,043,939","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T16:43:28.782Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":95435.26,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x9b9ff79cdc3c6dc3abbc494b06ea577567bea26a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T16:48:32.287Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 49 days, 2857 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 116 markets.","980 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 2.0% — excellent.","Skill: 58/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 42/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -299.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0122 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0041.","Log loss: 0.0726 (skill: -173.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -299.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 98% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $95435 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0162","Net profitable: +$179585 total PnL","Well-diversified: 116 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T16:48:40.990Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}