{"wallet":"0x9dd674f2035dd29e0cf15817aea0dbe5d027b634","displayName":"wawaveewa","pseudonym":"Outstanding-Warrior","raw":{"totalTrades":1274,"totalVolume":4128.17,"totalPnl":-18.51,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-18.51,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":264,"uniqueMarkets":1251},"calibration":41,"profitability":39,"consistency":96,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":55,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":264,"description":"C/55 ± 3 (high confidence, 264 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.0375,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.0375,"error":0.0375},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4730058879562382,"totalBets":208,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4730058879562382,"error":0.4730058879562382},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5061420000000001,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5061420000000001,"error":0.5061420000000001},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.61,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.61,"error":0.61}],"brierScore":0.2306,"calibrationError":0.4781,"resolvedBets":264,"overconfidenceBias":0.4781,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":2.6,"luck":5.9,"edge":-107.09},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2304,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.0776,"logLoss":0.6532,"logLossSkill":-81.6017,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":9,"earlyMoverPct":0.115,"timelinessScore":14}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9dd674f2035dd29e0cf15817aea0dbe5d027b634","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1770099326,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-03","walletAgeDays":75,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":3868.69,"totalUsdcOut":3750,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":51,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:12:30.025Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":137.2,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x9dd674f2035dd29e0cf15817aea0dbe5d027b634","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2979.26,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":527,"largestWithdrawal":99.99,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-06","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:12:29.216Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 75 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,979 in / $0 out across 527 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-06.","1274 total trades across 1251 markets.","264 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 47.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 6/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 7.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2304 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.6532 (skill: -8160.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 9.0 days before resolution, 12% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.478","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain coverage gap: 527 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 264 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 1251 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T05:12:36.618Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}