{"wallet":"0x9ddc4ea641741f1985b833f2d4b9dfbba2dee874","displayName":"encore21","pseudonym":"Jaded-Sanctuary","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":17537.48,"totalPnl":-6375.12,"realizedPnl":-15.29,"unrealizedPnl":-6359.83,"winRate":0.129,"openPositions":60,"resolvedBets":232,"uniqueMarkets":112},"calibration":16,"profitability":0,"consistency":61,"discipline":97,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":47,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":232,"description":"D/36 [CI95: F→D, 34-38] (232 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":34,"scoreHigh":38,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06993636363636363,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.09090909090909091,"expectedRate":0.06993636363636363,"error":0.020972727272727282},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14304827586206897,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.06896551724137931,"expectedRate":0.14304827586206897,"error":0.07408275862068966},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.22965,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.22965,"error":0.22965},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33755999999999997,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33755999999999997,"error":0.33755999999999997},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45721249999999997,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.45721249999999997,"error":0.042787500000000034},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5572125,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.5572125,"error":0.3072125},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6513545454545455,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.18181818181818182,"expectedRate":0.6513545454545455,"error":0.4695363636363637},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7444166666666665,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.7444166666666665,"error":0.4944166666666665},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.844109090909091,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.09090909090909091,"expectedRate":0.844109090909091,"error":0.7532000000000001},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.916825,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.916825,"error":0.916825}],"brierScore":0.2481,"calibrationError":0.2962,"resolvedBets":232,"overconfidenceBias":0.2863,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":27.2,"luck":60.8,"edge":-27.43},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1523,"resolution":0.0172,"uncertainty":0.1126},"brierSkillScore":-1.204,"logLoss":0.712,"logLossSkill":-0.8489,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9ddc4ea641741f1985b833f2d4b9dfbba2dee874","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777219838,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-26","walletAgeDays":2,"totalTransactions":2179,"uniqueCounterparties":93,"inboundTxCount":179,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":9484.89,"totalUsdcOut":8550.95,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":179,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.03,"medianTxIntervalSec":8,"burstTxCount":58,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Very new wallet: 2 days old — possible sybil","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 58 burst txs, median interval 8s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2179 txs","Diverse counterparties: 93 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $18,036","Diverse trading network: 93 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T12:36:07.056Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":7309.06,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x9ddc4ea641741f1985b833f2d4b9dfbba2dee874","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1083.14,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":11,"largestWithdrawal":506.68,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-27","fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T12:39:43.432Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 2 days, 2179 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,083 in / $0 out across 11 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-27.","3100 total trades across 112 markets.","232 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 29.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 27/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 61/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -120.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1523 RES=0.0172 UNC=0.1126.","Log loss: 0.7120 (skill: -84.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.286","Brier Skill Score: -120.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$6375 total PnL","Low win rate: 13%","On-chain: wallet only 2 days old on Polygon","PnL divergence: $7309 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 2 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 112 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-29T12:39:43.523Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 2 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":2}}