{"wallet":"0x9eefef907bde0098678f9e9aecd392e051a93de3","displayName":"Worthy-Julienne","pseudonym":"Worthy-Julienne","raw":{"totalTrades":157,"totalVolume":449.57,"totalPnl":-25.74,"realizedPnl":-1.69,"unrealizedPnl":-24.05,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":23,"uniqueMarkets":71},"calibration":18,"profitability":29,"consistency":70,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":23,"description":"D/38 ± 15 (low confidence, 23 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.050000000000000044,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.050000000000000044,"error":0.050000000000000044},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13604051702776188,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13604051702776188,"error":0.13604051702776188},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.235,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.235,"error":0.235},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3499,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3499,"error":0.3499},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46393685793719613,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46393685793719613,"error":0.46393685793719613},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5411602556455989,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5411602556455989,"error":0.5411602556455989},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6150000630000271,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6150000630000271,"error":0.6150000630000271},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7973964527664458,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7973964527664458,"error":0.7973964527664458},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9577064204928378,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9577064204928378,"error":0.9577064204928378}],"brierScore":0.3512,"calibrationError":0.5371,"resolvedBets":23,"overconfidenceBias":0.5371,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":26.2,"edge":-14.18},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3509,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.4046,"logLoss":1.1045,"logLossSkill":-138.6789,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x9eefef907bde0098678f9e9aecd392e051a93de3","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774539487,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-26","walletAgeDays":24,"totalTransactions":242,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":242,"totalUsdcIn":250.08,"totalUsdcOut":248.92,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":33,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 24 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 242 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:09.405Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":26.9,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 24 days, 242 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","157 total trades across 71 markets.","23 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 53.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -40.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3509 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1045 (skill: -13867.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.3 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3512","Overconfidence bias: 0.537","Brier Skill Score: -40.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 71 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:09.626Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}