{"wallet":"0xa17eb546302ebf1a132060ac1075a560a0b35ab3","displayName":"versax","pseudonym":"Each-Blank","raw":{"totalTrades":1694,"totalVolume":4625.7,"totalPnl":-79.17,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-79.17,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":262,"uniqueMarkets":288},"calibration":8,"profitability":37,"consistency":68,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":262,"description":"C/52 ± 3 (high confidence, 262 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1502999720077726,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1502999720077726,"error":0.1502999720077726},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26584430781137036,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26584430781137036,"error":0.26584430781137036},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3508325386605435,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3508325386605435,"error":0.3508325386605435},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4593924669182517,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4593924669182517,"error":0.4593924669182517},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5527155144786706,"totalBets":41,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5527155144786706,"error":0.5527155144786706},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.653723746615917,"totalBets":59,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.653723746615917,"error":0.653723746615917},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7437403075090555,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7437403075090555,"error":0.7437403075090555},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8459957980261983,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8459957980261983,"error":0.8459957980261983},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9388032757552167,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9388032757552167,"error":0.9388032757552167}],"brierScore":0.4358,"calibrationError":0.6311,"resolvedBets":262,"overconfidenceBias":0.6311,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.3,"edge":-44.9},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4351,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7433,"logLoss":1.1826,"logLossSkill":-148.5591,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xa17eb546302ebf1a132060ac1075a560a0b35ab3","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304148,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2042,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":42,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5585.1,"totalUsdcOut":5013.36,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":42,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.95,"medianTxIntervalSec":2828,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2042 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,598","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:06.926Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":650.91,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xa17eb546302ebf1a132060ac1075a560a0b35ab3","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2945.69,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":115,"largestWithdrawal":136.11,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:06.836Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2042 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,946 in / $0 out across 115 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1694 total trades across 288 markets.","262 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 63.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -74.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4351 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1826 (skill: -14855.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4358","Overconfidence bias: 0.631","Brier Skill Score: -74.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 95% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 288 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:10.255Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}