{"wallet":"0xa24d78c59bfe80531fb532a877e672c00e7a264a","displayName":"kongkingg","pseudonym":"Cylindrical-Pea","raw":{"totalTrades":1755,"totalVolume":4719.4,"totalPnl":244.52,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":244.52,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":270,"uniqueMarkets":292},"calibration":7,"profitability":50,"consistency":68,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":56,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":270,"description":"C/56 ± 3 (high confidence, 270 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14123796175902634,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14123796175902634,"error":0.14123796175902634},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26892810947702683,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26892810947702683,"error":0.26892810947702683},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35152566995250795,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35152566995250795,"error":0.35152566995250795},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4547722331364033,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4547722331364033,"error":0.4547722331364033},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5511940203890401,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5511940203890401,"error":0.5511940203890401},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6510561268257556,"totalBets":67,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6510561268257556,"error":0.6510561268257556},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7441483583935953,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7441483583935953,"error":0.7441483583935953},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8461202148073325,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8461202148073325,"error":0.8461202148073325},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9426281123061063,"totalBets":23,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9426281123061063,"error":0.9426281123061063}],"brierScore":0.4408,"calibrationError":0.6348,"resolvedBets":270,"overconfidenceBias":0.6348,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.4,"edge":-44.97},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.44,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7631,"logLoss":1.2045,"logLossSkill":-151.3275,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xa24d78c59bfe80531fb532a877e672c00e7a264a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304288,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2041,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":41,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5690.54,"totalUsdcOut":5096.09,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":41,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":3180,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2041 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,787","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:32.232Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":349.93,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xa24d78c59bfe80531fb532a877e672c00e7a264a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2998.55,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":116,"largestWithdrawal":135.9,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:37.418Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2041 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,999 in / $0 out across 116 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1755 total trades across 292 markets.","270 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 63.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -76.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4400 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.2045 (skill: -15132.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4408","Overconfidence bias: 0.635","Brier Skill Score: -76.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$245 total PnL","Well-diversified: 292 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:37.690Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}