{"wallet":"0xa2fac6cf9aed18d13270241dd4f477b9fa6d81a7","displayName":"vivid-powerade","pseudonym":"Beautiful-Tattler","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":17744.63,"totalPnl":-73076.87,"realizedPnl":21166.37,"unrealizedPnl":-94243.25,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":194},"calibration":20,"profitability":0,"consistency":68,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":33,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"F/33 ± 3 (high confidence, 1000 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.0619,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.0619,"error":0.0619},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15230697674418606,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15230697674418606,"error":0.15230697674418606},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24452033898305084,"totalBets":118,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24452033898305084,"error":0.24452033898305084},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3492938775510204,"totalBets":98,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3492938775510204,"error":0.3492938775510204},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44856274509803923,"totalBets":102,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44856274509803923,"error":0.44856274509803923},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5530650000000001,"totalBets":120,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5530650000000001,"error":0.5530650000000001},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6569999999999999,"totalBets":140,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6569999999999999,"error":0.6569999999999999},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7514178082191781,"totalBets":146,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7514178082191781,"error":0.7514178082191781},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8465555555555552,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8465555555555552,"error":0.8465555555555552},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9441952380952381,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9441952380952381,"error":0.9441952380952381}],"brierScore":0.3369,"calibrationError":0.5236,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.5236,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.7,"edge":-51.8},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3361,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.3476,"logLoss":0.9395,"logLossSkill":-117.8136,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xa2fac6cf9aed18d13270241dd4f477b9fa6d81a7","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774492683,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-26","walletAgeDays":27,"totalTransactions":2965,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":965,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":28229.55,"totalUsdcOut":17741.27,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":965,"botScore":25,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":30,"burstTxCount":188,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 27 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2965 txs","Significant USDC flow: $45,971","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T03:21:32.522Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":83565.15,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xa2fac6cf9aed18d13270241dd4f477b9fa6d81a7","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":19913.6,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":161,"largestWithdrawal":1123.09,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-26","fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T03:23:20.990Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 2965 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 25/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $19,914 in / $0 out across 161 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-26.","3100 total trades across 194 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 52.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -34.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3361 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.9395 (skill: -11781.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.524","Brier Skill Score: -34.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$73077 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $83565 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 194 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $19,914 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 161 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-22T03:23:22.062Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}