{"wallet":"0xa6e2fbf43e456c88446dd697f33af4dd5f6985a3","displayName":"Key-Nudge","pseudonym":"Key-Nudge","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":7047.49,"totalPnl":-790.08,"realizedPnl":-14.71,"unrealizedPnl":-775.37,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":468,"uniqueMarkets":811},"calibration":9,"profitability":18,"consistency":62,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":33,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":468,"description":"F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (468 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":32,"scoreHigh":34,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.039800000000000016,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.039800000000000016,"error":0.039800000000000016},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1638311340570066,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1638311340570066,"error":0.1638311340570066},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25120991388171654,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25120991388171654,"error":0.25120991388171654},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35417476475425214,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35417476475425214,"error":0.35417476475425214},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4555434371655788,"totalBets":55,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4555434371655788,"error":0.4555434371655788},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.555296628164219,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.555296628164219,"error":0.555296628164219},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6474182057327091,"totalBets":77,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6474182057327091,"error":0.6474182057327091},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7481026661879812,"totalBets":69,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7481026661879812,"error":0.7481026661879812},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8472951955634878,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8472951955634878,"error":0.8472951955634878},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9506551824953097,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9506551824953097,"error":0.9506551824953097}],"brierScore":0.4229,"calibrationError":0.6186,"resolvedBets":468,"overconfidenceBias":0.6186,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.1,"edge":-39.54},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4221,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.6916,"logLoss":1.1969,"logLossSkill":-150.37,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4.5,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":5}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xa6e2fbf43e456c88446dd697f33af4dd5f6985a3","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774817172,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-29","walletAgeDays":27,"totalTransactions":2410,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":410,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5738.07,"totalUsdcOut":5645.8,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":410,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.51,"medianTxIntervalSec":1462,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 27 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 51% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2410 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,384","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T11:40:34.613Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":882.35,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xa6e2fbf43e456c88446dd697f33af4dd5f6985a3","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4590.14,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":194,"largestWithdrawal":114.26,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-29","fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T11:43:58.822Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 2410 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,590 in / $0 out across 194 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-29.","3100 total trades across 811 markets.","468 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 61.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -69.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4221 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1969 (skill: -15037.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4229","Overconfidence bias: 0.619","Brier Skill Score: -69.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$790 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 27 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 811 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-26T11:43:59.208Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 27 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":27}}