{"wallet":"0xa8ccda0419f357f819271437efb61022f01341a9","displayName":"UUDDLRLR","pseudonym":"Exalted-Mattress","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":28534.73,"totalPnl":113.98,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":113.98,"winRate":0.004,"openPositions":12,"resolvedBets":498,"uniqueMarkets":522},"calibration":0,"profitability":41,"consistency":78,"discipline":90,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":34,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":498,"description":"D/41 [CI95: D→D, 40-42] (498 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":40,"scoreHigh":42,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16259026646714844,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.16259026646714844,"error":0.004076400199518215},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2627342631087081,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2627342631087081,"error":0.2627342631087081},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.363762273652453,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.363762273652453,"error":0.363762273652453},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4594047892534269,"totalBets":193,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4594047892534269,"error":0.4594047892534269},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5346233962201943,"totalBets":150,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5346233962201943,"error":0.5346233962201943},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6518552077570964,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6518552077570964,"error":0.6518552077570964},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7436408303667691,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.027777777777777776,"expectedRate":0.7436408303667691,"error":0.7158630525889913},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8350717901130889,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8350717901130889,"error":0.8350717901130889},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9634448864929597,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9634448864929597,"error":0.9634448864929597}],"brierScore":0.2894,"calibrationError":0.5171,"resolvedBets":498,"overconfidenceBias":0.517,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.1,"luck":26,"edge":-70.27},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2851,"resolution":0.0004,"uncertainty":0.004},"brierSkillScore":-71.346,"logLoss":0.7958,"logLossSkill":-29.4118,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xa8ccda0419f357f819271437efb61022f01341a9","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776042955,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-13","walletAgeDays":26,"totalTransactions":2122,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":122,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":101,"totalUsdcIn":46073.66,"totalUsdcOut":46053.66,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":122,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":6088,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 26 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2122 txs","Significant USDC flow: $92,127","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T09:28:09.532Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":93.98,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xa8ccda0419f357f819271437efb61022f01341a9","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":28746.57,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":76,"largestWithdrawal":2459.09,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-13","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T09:28:09.516Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 26 days, 2122 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $28,747 in / $0 out across 76 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-13.","3100 total trades across 522 markets.","498 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -7134.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2851 RES=0.0004 UNC=0.0040.","Log loss: 0.7958 (skill: -2941.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.517","Brier Skill Score: -7134.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wash trading signal — 98% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$114 total PnL","Well-diversified: 522 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $28,747 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 76 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T09:28:16.346Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}