{"wallet":"0xac5fb5b36cc71fd5b44558a1a3146a0e828e202d","displayName":"Crixtyler","pseudonym":"Cylindrical-Tooth","raw":{"totalTrades":369,"totalVolume":6612.65,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0.024,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":126,"uniqueMarkets":184},"calibration":0,"profitability":40,"consistency":54,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":126,"description":"D/38 ± 8 (medium confidence, 126 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.01875697653715144,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.01875697653715144,"error":0.01875697653715144},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13493945857391362,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13493945857391362,"error":0.13493945857391362},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24188681191771413,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24188681191771413,"error":0.24188681191771413},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3676398740020817,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3676398740020817,"error":0.3676398740020817},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4448651266810293,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4448651266810293,"error":0.4448651266810293},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5518986691851081,"totalBets":21,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.5518986691851081,"error":0.40904152632796525},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6545864425723537,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6545864425723537,"error":0.6545864425723537},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7390781668584946,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7390781668584946,"error":0.7390781668584946},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.854910494211574,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.854910494211574,"error":0.854910494211574},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.958692095186812,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.958692095186812,"error":0.958692095186812}],"brierScore":0.4834,"calibrationError":0.5953,"resolvedBets":126,"overconfidenceBias":0.5953,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.5,"luck":39.4,"edge":-17.58},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4629,"resolution":0.0028,"uncertainty":0.0232},"brierSkillScore":-19.7987,"logLoss":1.5966,"logLossSkill":-13.1904,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":22.6,"earlyMoverPct":0.619,"timelinessScore":47}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xac5fb5b36cc71fd5b44558a1a3146a0e828e202d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1738911589,"firstTxDate":"2025-02-07","walletAgeDays":436,"totalTransactions":503,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":501,"totalUsdcIn":5338.52,"totalUsdcOut":5317.07,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 436 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 503 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,656","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:03.029Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xac5fb5b36cc71fd5b44558a1a3146a0e828e202d","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":12.65,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":14,"largestWithdrawal":9.09,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-22","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:02.907Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 436 days, 503 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $13 in / $0 out across 14 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-22.","369 total trades across 184 markets.","126 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 59.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 39/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1979.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4629 RES=0.0028 UNC=0.0232.","Log loss: 1.5966 (skill: -1319.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 22.6 days before resolution, 62% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4834","Overconfidence bias: 0.595","Brier Skill Score: -1979.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 2%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 184 unique markets","On-chain: 436-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:05.732Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}