{"wallet":"0xaca0ea0dfb892084f732b6a5b00b477cd1549966","displayName":"Trader 0xaca0ea...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":260,"totalVolume":257,"totalPnl":38.41,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":38.41,"winRate":0.306,"openPositions":62,"resolvedBets":72,"uniqueMarkets":99},"calibration":32,"profitability":70,"consistency":2,"discipline":94,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":42,"trustScore":43,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":72,"description":"D/43 ± 8 (medium confidence, 72 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07014513187660577,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.36363636363636365,"expectedRate":0.07014513187660577,"error":0.2934912317597579},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14370655367066754,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.5555555555555556,"expectedRate":0.14370655367066754,"error":0.41184900188488804},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25554613396451736,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.42857142857142855,"expectedRate":0.25554613396451736,"error":0.17302529460691118},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33698002012002126,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.33698002012002126,"error":0.13698002012002125},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4511039203534131,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.08333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.4511039203534131,"error":0.3677705870200798},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5371572719143559,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.21428571428571427,"expectedRate":0.5371572719143559,"error":0.3228715576286416},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6399857644143195,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.42857142857142855,"expectedRate":0.6399857644143195,"error":0.211414335842891},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7448574217622014,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.7448574217622014,"error":0.4948574217622014},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8536388793099071,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.8536388793099071,"error":0.5203055459765737}],"brierScore":0.3045,"calibrationError":0.3165,"resolvedBets":72,"overconfidenceBias":0.0902,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":25.6,"luck":57.5,"edge":-48.65},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1106,"resolution":0.0221,"uncertainty":0.2122},"brierSkillScore":-0.435,"logLoss":0.8694,"logLossSkill":-0.4125,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xaca0ea0dfb892084f732b6a5b00b477cd1549966","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776536194,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-18","walletAgeDays":1,"totalTransactions":372,"uniqueCounterparties":27,"inboundTxCount":61,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":310,"totalUsdcIn":260.69,"totalUsdcOut":260,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":61,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.1,"medianTxIntervalSec":384,"burstTxCount":9,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 1 days old — possible sybil","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 372 txs","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 27 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:29:22.161Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":37.72,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xaca0ea0dfb892084f732b6a5b00b477cd1549966","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":155.69,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":35,"largestWithdrawal":22.2,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-18","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:29:21.818Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 1 days, 372 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $156 in / $0 out across 35 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.","260 total trades across 99 markets.","72 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 31.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 26/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 58/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -43.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1106 RES=0.0221 UNC=0.2122.","Log loss: 0.8694 (skill: -41.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -43.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 31%","On-chain: wallet only 1 days old on Polygon"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$38 total PnL","Well-diversified: 99 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T04:29:22.647Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}