{"wallet":"0xadd363805205c7d2dda855c63297ee19a1080447","displayName":"Trader 0xadd363...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":12708.23,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":275,"uniqueMarkets":275},"calibration":12,"profitability":40,"consistency":74,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":45,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":275,"description":"D/45 [CI95: D→D, 44-46] (275 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":44,"scoreHigh":46,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06429258421305106,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06429258421305106,"error":0.06429258421305106},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.17645160818100777,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.17645160818100777,"error":0.17645160818100777},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2602101743392842,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2602101743392842,"error":0.2602101743392842},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.336141964751809,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.336141964751809,"error":0.336141964751809},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4683234842987581,"totalBets":27,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4683234842987581,"error":0.4683234842987581},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5526721667283959,"totalBets":69,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5526721667283959,"error":0.5526721667283959},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6512799581098286,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6512799581098286,"error":0.6512799581098286},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7431919889647467,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7431919889647467,"error":0.7431919889647467},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8364079647253162,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8364079647253162,"error":0.8364079647253162},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9091281998313893,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9091281998313893,"error":0.9091281998313893}],"brierScore":0.3991,"calibrationError":0.6091,"resolvedBets":275,"overconfidenceBias":0.6091,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":19.4,"edge":-45.67},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3984,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.5963,"logLoss":1.0353,"logLossSkill":-129.9317,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.5,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xadd363805205c7d2dda855c63297ee19a1080447","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781062543,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-10","walletAgeDays":35,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":666,"totalUsdcIn":32362.06,"totalUsdcOut":32362.06,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $64,724","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-15T21:03:34.067Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xadd363805205c7d2dda855c63297ee19a1080447","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":32362.06,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":351,"largestWithdrawal":543.05,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-06-10","fetchedAt":"2026-07-15T21:04:21.813Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 35 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $32,362 in / $0 out across 351 withdrawal tx since 2026-06-10.","3100 total trades across 275 markets.","275 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 60.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -59.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3984 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.0353 (skill: -12993.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3991","Overconfidence bias: 0.609","Brier Skill Score: -59.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 275 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $32,362 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 351 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-15T21:04:22.369Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.04829513208596863,"reason":"Wallet age 35d → difficulty factor 0.05","ageDaysUsed":35}}