{"wallet":"0xaef4e97b843be8c17b6803d859f1f0139d9585d6","displayName":"davidgxs","pseudonym":"Bountiful-Finding","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3481.33,"totalPnl":6.95,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":6.95,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":190,"uniqueMarkets":190},"calibration":0,"profitability":40,"consistency":57,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":190,"description":"D/48 [CI95: D→C, 46-50] (190 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":46,"scoreHigh":50,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.017607592509358228,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.017607592509358228,"error":0.017607592509358228},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1273495900776252,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1273495900776252,"error":0.1273495900776252},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26019262292604334,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26019262292604334,"error":0.26019262292604334},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3560757141918597,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3560757141918597,"error":0.3560757141918597},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4564968396160076,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4564968396160076,"error":0.4564968396160076},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5532309527769826,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5532309527769826,"error":0.5532309527769826},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6318722357651548,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6318722357651548,"error":0.6318722357651548},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7753497462194461,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7753497462194461,"error":0.7753497462194461},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8682056900312406,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8682056900312406,"error":0.8682056900312406},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9545855662438616,"totalBets":47,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9545855662438616,"error":0.9545855662438616}],"brierScore":0.5012,"calibrationError":0.6688,"resolvedBets":190,"overconfidenceBias":0.6688,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":13.8,"edge":-16.78},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.5006,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-1.005,"logLoss":1.5427,"logLossSkill":-194.0933,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xaef4e97b843be8c17b6803d859f1f0139d9585d6","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772792981,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-06","walletAgeDays":49,"totalTransactions":2286,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":286,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":1413.35,"totalUsdcOut":942.36,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":286,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.06,"medianTxIntervalSec":2,"burstTxCount":184,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 184 burst txs, median interval 2s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2286 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:39:23.715Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":464.04,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xaef4e97b843be8c17b6803d859f1f0139d9585d6","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":659.99,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":17,"largestWithdrawal":92.5,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-13","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:42:10.419Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 49 days, 2286 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $660 in / $0 out across 17 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-13.","3100 total trades across 190 markets.","190 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 66.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -100.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.5006 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.5427 (skill: -19409.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.5012","Overconfidence bias: 0.669","Brier Skill Score: -100.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$7 total PnL","Well-diversified: 190 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T06:42:10.829Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.11278821222741209,"reason":"Wallet age 43d → difficulty factor 0.11","ageDaysUsed":43}}