{"wallet":"0xb1577435f3c6a21002cc143cde361d0e26a0ebd5","displayName":"whatawomen","pseudonym":"Fickle-Methane","raw":{"totalTrades":48,"totalVolume":236.74,"totalPnl":0.02,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0.02,"winRate":0.421,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":38,"uniqueMarkets":47},"calibration":24,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":0,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":38,"description":"F/0 ± 15 (low confidence, 38 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000004,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":14,"actualRate":0.4,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000004,"error":0.39},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6,"error":0.6},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.010000000000000009}],"brierScore":0.3706,"calibrationError":0.3755,"resolvedBets":38,"overconfidenceBias":-0.3439,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":18.6,"luck":17.4,"edge":-363.27},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1496,"resolution":0.0227,"uncertainty":0.2438},"brierSkillScore":-0.5204,"logLoss":1.7268,"logLossSkill":-1.5371,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":8.6,"earlyMoverPct":0.114,"timelinessScore":13}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xb1577435f3c6a21002cc143cde361d0e26a0ebd5","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772855631,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-07","walletAgeDays":43,"totalTransactions":2381,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":459,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1906,"totalUsdcIn":4773.7,"totalUsdcOut":4745.11,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":18,"contractInteractions":459,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":4650,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2381 txs","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:07.721Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":28.57,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xb1577435f3c6a21002cc143cde361d0e26a0ebd5","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2943.8,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":590,"largestWithdrawal":5,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-07","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:07.416Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 43 days, 2381 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,944 in / $0 out across 590 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-07.","48 total trades across 47 markets.","38 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 37.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 19/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -52.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1496 RES=0.0227 UNC=0.2438.","Log loss: 1.7268 (skill: -153.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 8.6 days before resolution, 11% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3706","Brier Skill Score: -52.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 92% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain coverage gap: 590 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 38 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Net profitable: +$0 total PnL","Well-diversified: 47 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:08.309Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}