{"wallet":"0xb1827a8014e5127335272901a4715cd5c635e082","displayName":"Scaly-Consulting","pseudonym":"Scaly-Consulting","raw":{"totalTrades":222,"totalVolume":9253.04,"totalPnl":4.54,"realizedPnl":-0.1,"unrealizedPnl":4.64,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":102,"uniqueMarkets":149},"calibration":0,"profitability":40,"consistency":81,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":42,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":102,"description":"D/42 ± 8 (medium confidence, 102 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.034999999999999996,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.034999999999999996,"error":0.034999999999999996},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46446801685966926,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46446801685966926,"error":0.46446801685966926},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5468348055249624,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5468348055249624,"error":0.5468348055249624},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6597238755061456,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6597238755061456,"error":0.6597238755061456},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7553194561424756,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7553194561424756,"error":0.7553194561424756},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.850871964300606,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.850871964300606,"error":0.850871964300606},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9565571536750676,"totalBets":41,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9565571536750676,"error":0.9565571536750676}],"brierScore":0.6664,"calibrationError":0.7934,"resolvedBets":102,"overconfidenceBias":0.7934,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.2,"edge":-10.57},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.6657,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-1.6658,"logLoss":2.1288,"logLossSkill":-268.2215,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":31.3,"earlyMoverPct":0.608,"timelinessScore":56}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xb1827a8014e5127335272901a4715cd5c635e082","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1769844988,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-31","walletAgeDays":78,"totalTransactions":357,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":355,"totalUsdcIn":7241.22,"totalUsdcOut":7238.86,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 357 txs","Significant USDC flow: $14,480","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:11:36.040Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":2.18,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 78 days, 357 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","222 total trades across 149 markets.","102 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 79.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -166.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.6657 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 2.1288 (skill: -26822.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 31.3 days before resolution, 61% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.6664","Overconfidence bias: 0.793","Brier Skill Score: -166.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$5 total PnL","Well-diversified: 149 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:11:38.339Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}