{"wallet":"0xb6c6271ca430f29bfd70ccb70b803cff122a043d","displayName":"Trader 0xb6c627...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":42327.34,"totalPnl":7987.26,"realizedPnl":13830.49,"unrealizedPnl":-5843.23,"winRate":0.634,"openPositions":12,"resolvedBets":41,"uniqueMarkets":59},"calibration":30,"profitability":78,"consistency":15,"discipline":88,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":43,"trustScore":49,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":41,"description":"D/49 ± 15 (low confidence, 41 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.032787927520511455,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.38461538461538464,"expectedRate":0.032787927520511455,"error":0.3518274570948732},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14646181561197405,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.14646181561197405,"error":0.18687151772135926},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23135786297008687,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.23135786297008687,"error":0.7686421370299131},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3334528994818455,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.75,"expectedRate":0.3334528994818455,"error":0.4165471005181545},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4213194295681799,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.4213194295681799,"error":0.24534723709848671},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":9,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.5},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.010000000000000009}],"brierScore":0.3145,"calibrationError":0.3629,"resolvedBets":41,"overconfidenceBias":-0.3629,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":28.2,"luck":100,"edge":19.34},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1538,"resolution":0.0736,"uncertainty":0.232},"brierSkillScore":-0.3556,"logLoss":1.0847,"logLossSkill":-0.6518,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":61.3,"earlyMoverPct":1,"timelinessScore":100}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xb6c6271ca430f29bfd70ccb70b803cff122a043d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1741686470,"firstTxDate":"2025-03-11","walletAgeDays":404,"totalTransactions":2579,"uniqueCounterparties":6,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":578,"totalEthReceived":"30.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"30.000000","usdcTransfers":1993,"totalUsdcIn":13233.76,"totalUsdcOut":13182.08,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":12,"contractInteractions":578,"botScore":40,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.78,"medianTxIntervalSec":12,"burstTxCount":106,"provenanceScore":80,"provenanceGrade":"A","flags":["Possible automated trading: 106 burst txs","Counterparty concentration: 78% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 404 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2579 txs","Significant USDC flow: $26,416"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:08:21.497Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":7935.58,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 404 days, 2579 txs, provenance grade A. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","3100 total trades across 59 markets.","41 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 36.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 28/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -35.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1538 RES=0.0736 UNC=0.2320.","Log loss: 1.0847 (skill: -65.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 61.3 days before resolution, 100% early mover."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -35.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)"],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Strong resolution/discrimination: forecasts meaningfully diverge from base rate","Early mover: avg 61 days before resolution","Net profitable: +$7987 total PnL","Strong win rate: 63%","Well-diversified: 59 unique markets","On-chain: 404-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:08:28.939Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}