{"wallet":"0xbb5bb4dbce619f494a7a4901263fad46404bfdf4","displayName":"Stained-Lemon","pseudonym":"Stained-Lemon","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":8188.85,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":491,"uniqueMarkets":1036},"calibration":4,"profitability":40,"consistency":62,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":491,"description":"D/36 [CI95: D→D, 35-37] (491 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":37,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06046493647693638,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06046493647693638,"error":0.06046493647693638},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1531048169646755,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1531048169646755,"error":0.1531048169646755},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2647305524123392,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2647305524123392,"error":0.2647305524123392},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3562714291612159,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3562714291612159,"error":0.3562714291612159},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45967834726987594,"totalBets":57,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45967834726987594,"error":0.45967834726987594},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.549270420446764,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.549270420446764,"error":0.549270420446764},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6495392850277751,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6495392850277751,"error":0.6495392850277751},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7437575090909072,"totalBets":82,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7437575090909072,"error":0.7437575090909072},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8467282622017157,"totalBets":69,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8467282622017157,"error":0.8467282622017157},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.95459015280112,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.95459015280112,"error":0.95459015280112}],"brierScore":0.4659,"calibrationError":0.6505,"resolvedBets":491,"overconfidenceBias":0.6505,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":25.7,"edge":-39.31},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4651,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8637,"logLoss":1.3518,"logLossSkill":-169.9533,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":6.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":6}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xbb5bb4dbce619f494a7a4901263fad46404bfdf4","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775037403,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-01","walletAgeDays":22,"totalTransactions":2321,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":321,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5700.53,"totalUsdcOut":5264.77,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":321,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.86,"medianTxIntervalSec":1594,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 22 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 86% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2321 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,965","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T08:53:23.773Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xbb5bb4dbce619f494a7a4901263fad46404bfdf4","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4907.9,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":194,"largestWithdrawal":101.18,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T08:53:19.124Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 22 days, 2321 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,908 in / $0 out across 194 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","3100 total trades across 1036 markets.","491 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 65.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -86.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4651 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.3518 (skill: -16995.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 6.3 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4659","Overconfidence bias: 0.650","Brier Skill Score: -86.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 21 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 1036 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-24T08:53:24.526Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 21 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":21}}