{"wallet":"0xbfa8c6d4fbed5aaca4661ee2079c1fc0ce676e47","displayName":"opiop18","pseudonym":"Giving-Footage","raw":{"totalTrades":212,"totalVolume":15497.95,"totalPnl":111.81,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":111.81,"winRate":0.024,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":82,"uniqueMarkets":141},"calibration":6,"profitability":41,"consistency":56,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":51,"trustScore":43,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":82,"description":"D/43 ± 8 (medium confidence, 82 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07000000009893614,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.07000000009893614,"error":0.07000000009893614},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1575000010297189,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1575000010297189,"error":0.1575000010297189},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25877019303518717,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.25877019303518717,"error":0.11591305017804432},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.360115384652734,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.058823529411764705,"expectedRate":0.360115384652734,"error":0.3012918552409693},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44345360909890247,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44345360909890247,"error":0.44345360909890247},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5409886920109295,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5409886920109295,"error":0.5409886920109295},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6215873024361622,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6215873024361622,"error":0.6215873024361622},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.76,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.76,"error":0.76},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8186378539557118,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8186378539557118,"error":0.8186378539557118}],"brierScore":0.2326,"calibrationError":0.4241,"resolvedBets":82,"overconfidenceBias":0.4241,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":9.4,"luck":13.5,"edge":-101.63},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2088,"resolution":0.0019,"uncertainty":0.0238},"brierSkillScore":-8.7768,"logLoss":0.6568,"logLossSkill":-4.7284,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.7,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xbfa8c6d4fbed5aaca4661ee2079c1fc0ce676e47","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775980897,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-12","walletAgeDays":7,"totalTransactions":311,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":310,"totalUsdcIn":10431.8,"totalUsdcOut":10364.57,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 7 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 311 txs","Significant USDC flow: $20,796","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:50.146Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":44.58,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xbfa8c6d4fbed5aaca4661ee2079c1fc0ce676e47","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2730.44,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":21,"largestWithdrawal":245.5,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-13","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:50.117Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 7 days, 311 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,730 in / $0 out across 21 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-13.","212 total trades across 141 markets.","82 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 42.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 9/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -877.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2088 RES=0.0019 UNC=0.0238.","Log loss: 0.6568 (skill: -472.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.424","Brier Skill Score: -877.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 2%"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$112 total PnL","Well-diversified: 141 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:51.425Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}