{"wallet":"0xbfe2ca560e558fa0d6868319e88cf84a076c8c49","displayName":"Ceoooq","pseudonym":"Enchanted-Bargain","raw":{"totalTrades":235,"totalVolume":185081.25,"totalPnl":22528.1,"realizedPnl":5759.95,"unrealizedPnl":16768.15,"winRate":0.18,"openPositions":10,"resolvedBets":61,"uniqueMarkets":107},"calibration":6,"profitability":64,"consistency":3,"discipline":82,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":98,"trustScore":50,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":61,"description":"C/50 ± 8 (medium confidence, 61 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.030024467522549225,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.030024467522549225,"error":0.030024467522549225},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1561681917462923,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.1561681917462923,"error":0.34383180825370774},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2475468522906584,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.5454545454545454,"expectedRate":0.2475468522906584,"error":0.297907693163887},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.334771925511117,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.1111111111111111,"expectedRate":0.334771925511117,"error":0.2236608144000059},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.42863548163589626,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.42863548163589626,"error":0.42863548163589626},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5433333341259999,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5433333341259999,"error":0.5433333341259999},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6579530178518115,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.2857142857142857,"expectedRate":0.6579530178518115,"error":0.3722387321375258},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.747103905826277,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.747103905826277,"error":0.747103905826277},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8640525342667879,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8640525342667879,"error":0.8640525342667879},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9528163563845969,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9528163563845969,"error":0.9528163563845969}],"brierScore":0.3581,"calibrationError":0.4238,"resolvedBets":61,"overconfidenceBias":0.2713,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":16.9,"luck":100,"edge":50.61},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2604,"resolution":0.0487,"uncertainty":0.1478},"brierSkillScore":-1.4228,"logLoss":1.087,"logLossSkill":-1.3036,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":40,"earlyMoverPct":0.59,"timelinessScore":64}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xbfe2ca560e558fa0d6868319e88cf84a076c8c49","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1767729835,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-06","walletAgeDays":103,"totalTransactions":418,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":417,"totalUsdcIn":148499.95,"totalUsdcOut":133875.75,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 418 txs","Significant USDC flow: $282,376","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:07:19.971Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":7903.9,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xbfe2ca560e558fa0d6868319e88cf84a076c8c49","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":55168.18,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":1,"withdrawalTxCount":32,"largestWithdrawal":20439.83,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-01-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:07:15.330Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 103 days, 418 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $55,168 in / $1 out across 32 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-17.","235 total trades across 107 markets.","61 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 42.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 17/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -142.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2604 RES=0.0487 UNC=0.1478.","Log loss: 1.0870 (skill: -130.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 40.0 days before resolution, 59% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3581","Overconfidence bias: 0.271","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -142.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 18%"],"greenFlags":["Early mover: avg 40 days before resolution","Strong live edge: 10 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$22528 total PnL","Well-diversified: 107 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $55,168 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 32 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T05:07:20.951Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}