{"wallet":"0xc10f1d8c5ce9c21e18ba61ff578c519088d17972","displayName":"Slimy-Movie","pseudonym":"Slimy-Movie","raw":{"totalTrades":90,"totalVolume":1023.53,"totalPnl":28.04,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":28.04,"winRate":0.682,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":66,"uniqueMarkets":72},"calibration":49,"profitability":45,"consistency":15,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":44,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":66,"description":"D/44 ± 8 (medium confidence, 66 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04500001187500091,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.04500001187500091,"error":0.4549999881249991},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15071699498129174,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.15071699498129174,"error":0.5159496716853749},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24366240376289397,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.8333333333333334,"expectedRate":0.24366240376289397,"error":0.5896709295704394},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34922947466570786,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.34922947466570786,"error":0.15077052533429214},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44249321561785493,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.44249321561785493,"error":0.05750678438214507},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5504834168106773,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.5504834168106773,"error":0.05048341681067725},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6609784537218476,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.8888888888888888,"expectedRate":0.6609784537218476,"error":0.22791043516704124},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.755169885101937,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":9,"actualRate":0.8181818181818182,"expectedRate":0.755169885101937,"error":0.06301193307988118},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8368954383481997,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.8,"expectedRate":0.8368954383481997,"error":0.03689543834819964},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9766666666666666,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.9766666666666666,"error":0.6433333333333333}],"brierScore":0.2624,"calibrationError":0.1884,"resolvedBets":66,"overconfidenceBias":-0.1065,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":42.3,"luck":100,"edge":8.07},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0783,"resolution":0.0307,"uncertainty":0.2169},"brierSkillScore":-0.2094,"logLoss":0.8086,"logLossSkill":-0.2927,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":5}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc10f1d8c5ce9c21e18ba61ff578c519088d17972","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775847869,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-10","walletAgeDays":9,"totalTransactions":146,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":146,"totalUsdcIn":1189.72,"totalUsdcOut":1012.88,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":33,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 9 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:11:00.433Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":148.8,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc10f1d8c5ce9c21e18ba61ff578c519088d17972","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":42.5,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":3,"largestWithdrawal":31.21,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-11","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:11:00.286Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 9 days, 146 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $43 in / $0 out across 3 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-11.","90 total trades across 72 markets.","66 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 18.8% — good.","Skill: 42/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -20.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0783 RES=0.0307 UNC=0.2169.","Log loss: 0.8086 (skill: -29.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -20.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Net profitable: +$28 total PnL","Strong win rate: 68%","Well-diversified: 72 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T05:11:01.044Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}