{"wallet":"0xc3293d1ea154d5de30ee1e13cbf507e8a8d0f401","displayName":"secondaryplayer","pseudonym":"Crowded-Recall","raw":{"totalTrades":174,"totalVolume":7386.85,"totalPnl":176.79,"realizedPnl":19.69,"unrealizedPnl":157.1,"winRate":0.2,"openPositions":46,"resolvedBets":15,"uniqueMarkets":81},"calibration":27,"profitability":45,"consistency":0,"discipline":95,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":56,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":15,"description":"D/41 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 15 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.029,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.029,"error":0.029},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.12963297886674693,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.12963297886674693,"error":0.12963297886674693},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25785787950665057,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25785787950665057,"error":0.25785787950665057},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34669939770756547,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.34669939770756547,"error":0.013366064374232156},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5140910628509573,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.5140910628509573,"error":0.4859089371490427},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6566333248537377,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.6566333248537377,"error":0.3433666751462623},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8500001125000282,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8500001125000282,"error":0.8500001125000282},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9650000144000006,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9650000144000006,"error":0.9650000144000006}],"brierScore":0.2517,"calibrationError":0.3227,"resolvedBets":15,"overconfidenceBias":0.2122,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":39.8,"luck":76.3,"edge":-35.25},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2127,"resolution":0.1156,"uncertainty":0.16},"brierSkillScore":-0.5733,"logLoss":0.8519,"logLossSkill":-0.7025,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":7.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":7}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc3293d1ea154d5de30ee1e13cbf507e8a8d0f401","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775477471,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-06","walletAgeDays":13,"totalTransactions":265,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":265,"totalUsdcIn":5338.05,"totalUsdcOut":5233.02,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 13 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 265 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,571","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:10.089Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":71.76,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc3293d1ea154d5de30ee1e13cbf507e8a8d0f401","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":159.18,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":2,"largestWithdrawal":139.37,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-16","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:09.900Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 265 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $159 in / $0 out across 2 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-16.","174 total trades across 81 markets.","15 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 32.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 40/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 76/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -57.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2127 RES=0.1156 UNC=0.1600.","Log loss: 0.8519 (skill: -70.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 7.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.212","High luck component: 76/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -57.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 20%"],"greenFlags":["Strong resolution/discrimination: forecasts meaningfully diverge from base rate","Net profitable: +$177 total PnL","Well-diversified: 81 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:11.017Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}