{"wallet":"0xc37141e2aadfa26655bf039cacdc239c9da21e28","displayName":"FML69","pseudonym":"Prize-Firewall","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":25006.02,"totalPnl":-3819.76,"realizedPnl":3261.44,"unrealizedPnl":-7081.2,"winRate":0.017,"openPositions":34,"resolvedBets":966,"uniqueMarkets":60},"calibration":5,"profitability":9,"consistency":100,"discipline":88,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":52,"trustScore":47,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":966,"description":"D/47 [CI95: D→D, 46-48] (966 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":46,"scoreHigh":48,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.0635014492753623,"totalBets":138,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.057971014492753624,"expectedRate":0.0635014492753623,"error":0.00553043478260868},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15912777777777773,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.037037037037037035,"expectedRate":0.15912777777777773,"error":0.1220907407407407},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24613461538461545,"totalBets":104,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24613461538461545,"error":0.24613461538461545},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.351933962264151,"totalBets":106,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.351933962264151,"error":0.351933962264151},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45583111111111096,"totalBets":90,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45583111111111096,"error":0.45583111111111096},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.545451923076923,"totalBets":104,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.545451923076923,"error":0.545451923076923},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6445717391304349,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6445717391304349,"error":0.6445717391304349},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7468875,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7468875,"error":0.7468875},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8461843750000007,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8461843750000007,"error":0.8461843750000007},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9277899999999999,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.05,"expectedRate":0.9277899999999999,"error":0.8777899999999998}],"brierScore":0.2868,"calibrationError":0.4327,"resolvedBets":966,"overconfidenceBias":0.4327,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":8.2,"luck":100,"edge":-63.53},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2702,"resolution":0.0006,"uncertainty":0.0163},"brierSkillScore":-16.6089,"logLoss":0.8393,"logLossSkill":-8.9505,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc37141e2aadfa26655bf039cacdc239c9da21e28","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1763610917,"firstTxDate":"2025-11-20","walletAgeDays":158,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":3946.82,"totalUsdcOut":3694.27,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)","WMATIC"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":56,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T08:41:47.534Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":4072.31,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc37141e2aadfa26655bf039cacdc239c9da21e28","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1008.48,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":51,"largestWithdrawal":67.81,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-11-25","fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T08:46:34.127Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 158 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,008 in / $0 out across 51 withdrawal tx since 2025-11-25.","3100 total trades across 60 markets.","966 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 43.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 8/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1660.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2702 RES=0.0006 UNC=0.0163.","Log loss: 0.8393 (skill: -895.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.433","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -1660.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$3820 total PnL","Low win rate: 2%"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 60 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-27T08:46:35.925Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.4826186741899963,"reason":"Wallet age 140d → difficulty factor 0.48","ageDaysUsed":140}}