{"wallet":"0xc3b377a79eb479350981e0fa9a070a6f39017c1b","displayName":"huckscf","pseudonym":"Married-Heroine","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3852.81,"totalPnl":-5108.54,"realizedPnl":464.9,"unrealizedPnl":-5573.44,"winRate":0.003,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":660,"uniqueMarkets":30},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":75,"discipline":45,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":29,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":660,"description":"F/29 ± 3 (high confidence, 660 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05399200000000001,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05399200000000001,"error":0.05399200000000001},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15072608695652173,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15072608695652173,"error":0.15072608695652173},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2522333333333333,"totalBets":78,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2522333333333333,"error":0.2522333333333333},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3508116279069767,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.023255813953488372,"expectedRate":0.3508116279069767,"error":0.3275558139534883},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4352040000000001,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4352040000000001,"error":0.4352040000000001},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5591111111111108,"totalBets":90,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5591111111111108,"error":0.5591111111111108},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6423859999999998,"totalBets":100,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6423859999999998,"error":0.6423859999999998},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.744744117647059,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.744744117647059,"error":0.744744117647059},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8403666666666667,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8403666666666667,"error":0.8403666666666667},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9547838709677415,"totalBets":62,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9547838709677415,"error":0.9547838709677415}],"brierScore":0.3214,"calibrationError":0.4983,"resolvedBets":660,"overconfidenceBias":0.4983,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.2,"luck":56.3,"edge":-42.96},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3177,"resolution":0.0001,"uncertainty":0.003},"brierSkillScore":-105.3725,"logLoss":0.9529,"logLossSkill":-45.2617,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc3b377a79eb479350981e0fa9a070a6f39017c1b","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771301527,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-17","walletAgeDays":63,"totalTransactions":2822,"uniqueCounterparties":31,"inboundTxCount":822,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":42400.32,"totalUsdcOut":40804.97,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":822,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.62,"medianTxIntervalSec":300,"burstTxCount":56,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2822 txs","Significant USDC flow: $83,205","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T00:42:13.968Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":6703.89,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc3b377a79eb479350981e0fa9a070a6f39017c1b","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":40643.07,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":263,"largestWithdrawal":1087.56,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-19","fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T00:42:13.887Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 63 days, 2822 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $40,643 in / $0 out across 263 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-19.","3100 total trades across 30 markets.","660 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 56/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -10537.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3177 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0030.","Log loss: 0.9529 (skill: -4526.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.498","Brier Skill Score: -10537.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$5109 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $6704 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 30 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $40,643 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 263 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-22T00:42:20.498Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}