{"wallet":"0xc4a9636183448273e6b93f54e5ed589bed113981","displayName":"aiwubnndi212","pseudonym":"Itchy-Fatherinlaw","raw":{"totalTrades":48,"totalVolume":470.87,"totalPnl":0.07,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0.07,"winRate":0.467,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":45,"uniqueMarkets":48},"calibration":35,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":1,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":45,"description":"F/1 ± 15 (low confidence, 45 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000005,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":15,"actualRate":0.38461538461538464,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000005,"error":0.37461538461538463},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9900000000000001,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.9900000000000001,"error":0.009999999999999898}],"brierScore":0.3268,"calibrationError":0.326,"resolvedBets":45,"overconfidenceBias":-0.326,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":27.9,"luck":19.4,"edge":-278.83},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1216,"resolution":0.0438,"uncertainty":0.2489},"brierSkillScore":-0.3129,"logLoss":1.5418,"logLossSkill":-1.2314,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":7.7,"earlyMoverPct":0.073,"timelinessScore":11}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc4a9636183448273e6b93f54e5ed589bed113981","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773648889,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-16","walletAgeDays":34,"totalTransactions":2103,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":338,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1750,"totalUsdcIn":8712.01,"totalUsdcOut":8657.29,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":16,"contractInteractions":338,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":5698,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2103 txs","Significant USDC flow: $17,369","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:14.600Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":54.65,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc4a9636183448273e6b93f54e5ed589bed113981","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5571.32,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":559,"largestWithdrawal":10,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-16","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:14.417Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 34 days, 2103 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,571 in / $0 out across 559 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-16.","48 total trades across 48 markets.","45 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 32.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 28/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -31.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1216 RES=0.0438 UNC=0.2489.","Log loss: 1.5418 (skill: -123.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 7.7 days before resolution, 7% early mover."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -31.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 87% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain coverage gap: 559 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 45 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Net profitable: +$0 total PnL","Well-diversified: 48 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:14.896Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}