{"wallet":"0xc617506a2502a36e8c52e2889e68e11398130d15","displayName":"nullpointa","pseudonym":"Stable-Plug","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":24082.82,"totalPnl":-10820.52,"realizedPnl":-2969.3,"unrealizedPnl":-7851.22,"winRate":0,"openPositions":18,"resolvedBets":982,"uniqueMarkets":390},"calibration":95,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":86,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":72,"trustScore":72,"trustGrade":"B","trustTier":"SOLID","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":982,"description":"B/72 [CI95: B→B, 72-72] (982 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":72,"scoreHigh":72,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.054070135746606074,"totalBets":884,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.054070135746606074,"error":0.054070135746606074},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.12336666666666654,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.12336666666666654,"error":0.12336666666666654},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2,"error":0.2},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33792,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33792,"error":0.33792},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5900000000000001,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5900000000000001,"error":0.5900000000000001}],"brierScore":0.0067,"calibrationError":0.0643,"resolvedBets":982,"overconfidenceBias":0.0643,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":52.3,"luck":59.7,"edge":-99.82},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0059,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.9734,"logLoss":0.0682,"logLossSkill":-7.6255,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc617506a2502a36e8c52e2889e68e11398130d15","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1780530474,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-03","walletAgeDays":13,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":212,"totalUsdcIn":5847.96,"totalUsdcOut":5847.96,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 13 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,696","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T04:38:53.150Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":10820.52,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc617506a2502a36e8c52e2889e68e11398130d15","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T04:38:52.759Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 390 markets.","982 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 6.4% — excellent.","Skill: 52/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 60/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 97.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0059 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.0682 (skill: -762.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$10821 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $10821 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 12 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0067","Brier Skill Score: 97.3% better than naive baseline","Strong live edge: 18 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 390 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-17T04:38:59.694Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 12 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":12}}