{"wallet":"0xc645e03f179ed44d6910f3299b3c26f759751420","displayName":"aqhxs","pseudonym":"Frightening-Rear","raw":{"totalTrades":1434,"totalVolume":3757.16,"totalPnl":-79.69,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-79.69,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":258,"uniqueMarkets":284},"calibration":9,"profitability":36,"consistency":65,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":258,"description":"C/52 ± 3 (high confidence, 258 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13825730779257892,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13825730779257892,"error":0.13825730779257892},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26447877442724643,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26447877442724643,"error":0.26447877442724643},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3532973630733146,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3532973630733146,"error":0.3532973630733146},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.454867312595289,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.454867312595289,"error":0.454867312595289},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5547474689356594,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5547474689356594,"error":0.5547474689356594},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6495799994628668,"totalBets":49,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6495799994628668,"error":0.6495799994628668},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.743535429113849,"totalBets":51,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.743535429113849,"error":0.743535429113849},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8447146400302233,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8447146400302233,"error":0.8447146400302233},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.948536240315614,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.948536240315614,"error":0.948536240315614}],"brierScore":0.427,"calibrationError":0.6241,"resolvedBets":258,"overconfidenceBias":0.6241,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.7,"edge":-48.4},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4263,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.708,"logLoss":1.1621,"logLossSkill":-145.9705,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc645e03f179ed44d6910f3299b3c26f759751420","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304344,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2040,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":40,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4705.25,"totalUsdcOut":4209.95,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":40,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":2764,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":38,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2040 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:20:16.547Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":574.99,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc645e03f179ed44d6910f3299b3c26f759751420","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2884.47,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":110,"largestWithdrawal":135.56,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:20:16.423Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2040 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,884 in / $0 out across 110 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1434 total trades across 284 markets.","258 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 62.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -70.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4263 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1621 (skill: -14597.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.427","Overconfidence bias: 0.624","Brier Skill Score: -70.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 284 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:20:19.105Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}