{"wallet":"0xc68038358abf75c1dfa1f55ce8af2182716e458f","displayName":"Trader 0xc68038...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":609,"totalVolume":3162.95,"totalPnl":-7.81,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-7.81,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":31,"uniqueMarkets":52},"calibration":12,"profitability":40,"consistency":54,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":31,"description":"D/38 [CI95: F→D, 33-42] (31 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":33,"scoreHigh":42,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.050000000000000044,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.050000000000000044,"error":0.050000000000000044},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35666666666666663,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35666666666666663,"error":0.35666666666666663},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4653638925626452,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4653638925626452,"error":0.4653638925626452},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5292692835371621,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5292692835371621,"error":0.5292692835371621},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6641760612727544,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6641760612727544,"error":0.6641760612727544},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7929968978094897,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7929968978094897,"error":0.7929968978094897},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8941991601679664,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8941991601679664,"error":0.8941991601679664},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9404023616737409,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9404023616737409,"error":0.9404023616737409}],"brierScore":0.3988,"calibrationError":0.5915,"resolvedBets":31,"overconfidenceBias":0.5915,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":54.1,"edge":-50.26},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3985,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.5953,"logLoss":1.1775,"logLossSkill":-147.91,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.5,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc68038358abf75c1dfa1f55ce8af2182716e458f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776959188,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-23","walletAgeDays":1,"totalTransactions":915,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":35,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":879,"totalUsdcIn":2494.77,"totalUsdcOut":2130.21,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":35,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.81,"medianTxIntervalSec":728,"burstTxCount":3,"provenanceScore":50,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 1 days old — possible sybil","Wash trading signal: 81% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 915 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:31:48.617Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":372.37,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc68038358abf75c1dfa1f55ce8af2182716e458f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":91.11,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":17,"largestWithdrawal":34.67,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-24","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:31:48.319Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 1 days, 915 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $91 in / $0 out across 17 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-24.","609 total trades across 52 markets.","31 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 59.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 54/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -59.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3985 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1775 (skill: -14791.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3988","Overconfidence bias: 0.592","Brier Skill Score: -59.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 1 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 81% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 1 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 52 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T06:31:49.703Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 1 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":1}}