{"wallet":"0xc76f85c258044adea3167f4ee7b29c24c4eba5db","displayName":"fluffyfluffyfluffy","pseudonym":"Distinct-Barley","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":18064.82,"totalPnl":18474.16,"realizedPnl":33287.63,"unrealizedPnl":-14813.46,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":362,"uniqueMarkets":118},"calibration":30,"profitability":100,"consistency":83,"discipline":91,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":53,"trustScore":65,"trustGrade":"B","trustTier":"SOLID","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":362,"description":"B/65 [CI95: C→B, 64-66] (362 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":64,"scoreHigh":66,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.067525,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.067525,"error":0.067525},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15134117647058826,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15134117647058826,"error":0.15134117647058826},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2571593750000001,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2571593750000001,"error":0.2571593750000001},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35617,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35617,"error":0.35617},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.439731818181818,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.439731818181818,"error":0.439731818181818},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5458388888888889,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5458388888888889,"error":0.5458388888888889},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6475588235294119,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6475588235294119,"error":0.6475588235294119},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7630360000000002,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7630360000000002,"error":0.7630360000000002},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8336266666666667,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8336266666666667,"error":0.8336266666666667},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9363,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9363,"error":0.9363}],"brierScore":0.271,"calibrationError":0.4684,"resolvedBets":362,"overconfidenceBias":0.4684,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":3.8,"luck":24.4,"edge":-79.62},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2703,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0841,"logLoss":0.7546,"logLossSkill":-94.4302,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc76f85c258044adea3167f4ee7b29c24c4eba5db","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774871418,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":27,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":1000,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":11711.84,"totalUsdcOut":7413.6,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":1000,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":102,"burstTxCount":3,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 27 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $19,125","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T10:43:45.827Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":14175.92,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc76f85c258044adea3167f4ee7b29c24c4eba5db","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":6411.84,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":24,"largestWithdrawal":882.94,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-31","fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T10:43:46.133Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $6,412 in / $0 out across 24 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.","3100 total trades across 118 markets.","362 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 46.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 24/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -8.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2703 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7546 (skill: -9443.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.468","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $14176 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 26 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$18474 total PnL","Well-diversified: 118 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-27T10:43:47.593Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 26 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":26}}