{"wallet":"0xc89d5c0f4d12aa83475b2b7804995578c46d9dc0","displayName":"ilovetosnowboard12345","pseudonym":"Probable-Act","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":14682.59,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":40,"uniqueMarkets":42},"calibration":21,"profitability":40,"consistency":80,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":40,"description":"D/39 [CI95: D→D, 37-41] (40 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":37,"scoreHigh":41,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.27918195406984636,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.27918195406984636,"error":0.27918195406984636},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46310504896731913,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.46310504896731913,"error":0.46310504896731913},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5480344029271791,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5480344029271791,"error":0.5480344029271791},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.635278766017289,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.635278766017289,"error":0.635278766017289},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.741958320281649,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.741958320281649,"error":0.741958320281649},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8219368172423973,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8219368172423973,"error":0.8219368172423973},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9064124791617052,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9064124791617052,"error":0.9064124791617052}],"brierScore":0.3234,"calibrationError":0.557,"resolvedBets":40,"overconfidenceBias":0.557,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16,"edge":-78.08},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3227,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.2934,"logLoss":0.8636,"logLossSkill":-108.2103,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0xc89d5c0f4d12aa83475b2b7804995578c46d9dc0","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775449021,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-06","walletAgeDays":26,"totalTransactions":2972,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":972,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5696.62,"totalUsdcOut":4352.06,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":972,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":604,"burstTxCount":35,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 26 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2972 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,049","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T11:06:25.122Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0xc89d5c0f4d12aa83475b2b7804995578c46d9dc0","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2751.61,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":4,"largestWithdrawal":1141.43,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-06","fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T11:06:57.125Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 26 days, 2972 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,752 in / $0 out across 4 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-06.","3100 total trades across 42 markets.","40 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 55.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -29.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3227 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8636 (skill: -10821.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.557","Brier Skill Score: -29.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 26 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 42 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-02T11:06:57.222Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 26 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":26}}